Bitcoin News Today: Ki Young Ju Admits Miscalculation as Bitcoin Surges 54% on Institutional Buying and Structural Shifts

Bitcoin’s recent price movements have sparked renewed debate among market analysts, particularly after a prominent figure in the cryptocurrency space publicly revised his earlier bearish outlook. Ki Young Ju, founder and CEO of CryptoQuant, acknowledged miscalculations in his April forecast, which had signaled the end of Bitcoin’s bull cycle when the asset reached $80,000. His revised stance follows Bitcoin’s record-breaking surge to $123,236 in July, a development that contradicted his earlier assertion that the market had become "insensitive to new capital" [1].

Ju’s original analysis, shared on April 4, argued that despite significant institutional buying activity, the market lacked momentum for further growth, positioning Bitcoin in a phase he labeled as "bear market territory." Investors who heeded this guidance reportedly missed out on gains of approximately 54% by mid-May, when Bitcoin surpassed $112,000 [2]. In a public message, Ju apologized for the error, admitting his forecast may have influenced decisions and vowing to prioritize data-driven insights moving forward. He also noted, "Trading is now meaningless. The number of investors has surpassed traders," highlighting a shift in market dynamics [3].

The revised analysis attributes Bitcoin’s resilience to structural changes in market behavior. Ju posits that large holders ("whales") are increasingly transferring coins to institutional investors to build treasury reserves, reducing volatility and creating a more stable upward trajectory. This contrasts with traditional bull cycles, where whales typically sell after accumulation, spiking retail demand [4]. However, this perspective faces pushback. Jurrien Timmer of Fidelity recently reiterated his belief that Bitcoin’s four-year cycle remains a reliable framework, suggesting historical patterns still hold predictive value [5].

Despite the disagreement, Ju emphasizes that modern reserve strategies—such as corporate acquisitions of Bitcoin—have altered traditional market mechanics. He advocates for tracking on-chain fund flows over technical indicators, arguing that institutional buying is likely to sustain price support in the long term. This perspective aligns with observations of corporate entities increasingly allocating portions of their treasuries to crypto assets, though the extent of their influence remains untested by broader market conditions [6].

The episode underscores the evolving nature of Bitcoin’s market fundamentals and the challenges analysts face in applying historical models to a rapidly changing landscape. While Ju’s correction highlights the fallibility of short-term predictions, it also reflects a broader acknowledgment that institutional adoption is reshaping market dynamics. As debates over cycle theories continue, investors are left to navigate a landscape where traditional indicators may hold diminishing relevance.

Source:

[1] [Bitcoin Surges Challenge Expert’s Predictions] [https://coinmarketcap.com/community/articles/68833f588708453433dcee58/]

[2] [Bitcoin Surges Challenge Expert’s Predictions] [https://coinmarketcap.com/community/articles/68833f588708453433dcee58/]

[3] [Bitcoin Surges Challenge Expert’s Predictions] [https://coinmarketcap.com/community/articles/68833f588708453433dcee58/]

[4] [Bitcoin Surges Challenge Expert’s Predictions] [https://coinmarketcap.com/community/articles/68833f588708453433dcee58/]

[5] [Bitcoin Surges Challenge Expert’s Predictions] [https://coinmarketcap.com/community/articles/68833f588708453433dcee58/]

[6] [Bitcoin Surges Challenge Expert’s Predictions] [https://coinmarketcap.com/community/articles/68833f588708453433dcee58/]