Bitcoin News Today: Kenneth Rogoff Revises Bitcoin Prediction Amid 2025 Rally to $124,128

Kenneth Rogoff, former chief economist at the International Monetary Fund and professor at Harvard University, revisited his earlier stance on Bitcoin in late 2025, acknowledging the divergence between his 2018 prediction and the cryptocurrency’s actual performance. In 2018, Rogoff stated that Bitcoin was “more likely” to fall to $100 than to rise above $10,000. However, by 2025, Bitcoin had surged to over $113,260, peaking at $124,128, highlighting the unpredictable nature of cryptocurrency markets [1][2]. Rogoff admitted his forecast was overly optimistic regarding regulatory actions and failed to anticipate Bitcoin’s growing acceptance as a medium of exchange [2].

The 2025 Bitcoin bullishness has sparked renewed interest in the cryptocurrency’s potential as a long-term investment. Factors such as the introduction of spot ETFs, increased institutional adoption, and improved regulatory clarity have been cited by analysts as key contributors to the upward trend [2]. Rogoff’s current assessment appears more nuanced than his earlier warnings. While he did not explicitly revise his concerns about Bitcoin’s volatility and environmental impact, his public reflection signals an acknowledgment of market realities [1]. This shift in tone aligns with a broader trend among economists and policymakers, who are increasingly engaging with the crypto space rather than dismissing it outright.

The broader context of Bitcoin’s 2025 rally also includes macroeconomic conditions, central bank policies, and investor sentiment, all of which have played a role in the asset’s performance. However, it is essential to distinguish between individual forecasts and actual market outcomes. Rogoff’s 2018 prediction was a forecast at the time and should not be conflated with the actual trajectory of Bitcoin in the following years [1]. This distinction underscores the inherent limitations of economic forecasting in speculative environments.

Kenneth Rogoff’s reflection on his Bitcoin prediction serves as a case study in the evolving discourse around cryptocurrency. It highlights the need for flexibility in economic analysis and the value of re-evaluating long-held views in light of new data. As Bitcoin continues to attract attention from investors and regulators, the perspectives of influential figures like Rogoff will remain significant in shaping the broader narrative around digital assets [1][2].

Source:

[1] Bitcoin Prediction: Harvard Economist Rogoff Reflects On ... (https://bitcoinworld.co.in/bitcoin-prediction-rogoff-reflects/)

[2] Powell at Jackson Hole, Fed Minutes, Walmart Earnings (https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-dow-sp-500-nasdaq-08-19-2025/card/powell-at-jackson-hole-fed-minutes-walmart-earnings-what-to-watch-this-week-Osr9Zp13kjhz8Ua5JKju?gaa_at=eafs&gaa_n=ASWzDAjAZg82EJ94GS9cWjD6ouZrfYfyUxO8Ve3Ykt2KwA_k1AssahphONIB&gaa_sig=_ZNAKW8nzklI3S7BclDIDiXmKcnd30xAkcIfLFPZf1kXeVRLy8PzS1a23qYdnIySfiOkvE_Dr0tHPKakUelwCQ%3D%3D&gaa_ts=68a4f4be)