Bitcoin News Today: Institutions Bet $1.74B on Bitcoin's $100K Target as Coinbase Premium Turns Bullish

Coinbase's Bitcoin premium has turned positive, signaling growing optimism in a market poised for a potential surge to $100,000. The exchange, a bellwether for crypto sentiment, reported a marked acceleration in trading volumes during its Q3 2025 earnings call, with derivatives and spot trading reaching all-time highs post-Deribit acquisition. This momentum aligns with broader market dynamics, including BlackRock ETF holders returning to profit as Bitcoin's price recovered above $90,000. The $90,348 level, a recent seven-month high, has reignited speculation that the asset could soon reclaim its October peak of $126,080.

The shift in sentiment is underscored by a $1.74 billion institutional options bet on Deribit, targeting a $100,000–$118,000 price range for Bitcoin by December 26. This call condor strategy, executed via Paradigm, reflects confidence in a controlled rally rather than unbounded volatility. The positioning dominates open interest in the December expiry, with over 55,000 BTC tied to strikes at $100,000 and $112,000. Such large-scale bets often serve as leading indicators for market direction, particularly as Bitcoin options show a 63% call dominance, favoring upward movement.

Coinbase's strategic expansion, including its Everything Exchange product launch and integration of decentralized exchange (DEX) infrastructure, has also attracted institutional attention. Cathie Wood's Ark Invest increased its stake in Coinbase by 62,166 shares ($16.47 million), signaling renewed appetite for crypto infrastructure plays. The exchange's developer platform now supports 264 institutions, positioning it as a recurring revenue driver in the evolving crypto ecosystem. Meanwhile, stablecoin adoption—surpassing a $300 billion market cap—highlights broader payment use cases, though critics like Nobel laureate Paul Krugman argue Bitcoin remains a speculative asset lacking practical utility according to analysis.

Volatility metrics further reinforce a bullish outlook. Bitcoin's implied volatility index (BVIV) dropped to 51% from a recent 65%, mirroring a decline in the S&P 500's VIX to 17%. This cooling follows a surge in expectations for a December Federal Reserve rate cut, now at 87% probability, which has reduced demand for protective put options. "Markets are balancing on a knife's edge, but sentiment has stabilized meaningfully," said Derive's Dr. Sean Dawson, noting a partial unwind of defensive hedging as risk appetite returns.

Despite these positives, bearish risks persist. Bitcoin's 30% correction since October's highs has led some analysts to caution against complacency, while Krugman attributes price swings to the "Trump trade"—a bet on pro-crypto policies now fraying with the president's waning popularity according to analysis. Yet prediction markets like Myriad suggest a 70% likelihood of Bitcoin reaching $100,000, and BlackRock ETF inflows have reversed recent outflows, indicating renewed institutional confidence.

As the year-end approaches, the convergence of Coinbase's strategic gains, institutional positioning, and macroeconomic tailwinds points to a critical inflection point. Whether Bitcoin achieves its $100,000 target will depend on sustaining this momentum through regulatory clarity, stablecoin adoption, and a Fed pivot toward accommodative policy. For now, the market appears to be pricing in a bull case.