Bitcoin News Today: Institutional Adoption Fuels Bitcoin's Bold Challenge to Gold's Market Dominance

VanEck's bold projection that Bitcoin could capture half of gold's market value has sparked renewed debate about the cryptocurrency's long-term trajectory and its potential to rival the traditional safe-haven asset. The firm's research, led by Mathew Sigel, head of digital assets research, posits that if Bitcoin reaches this benchmark, it would trade at approximately $644,000 per coin, given gold's current market capitalization of $26 trillionVanEck Sees Bitcoin Reaching Half of Gold’s Market Value^[1]. This estimate assumes Bitcoin's market cap would expand from its current $2.48 trillion to $13 trillionVanEck Mid-July 2025 Bitcoin ChainCheck^[2], a 5.6x increase from current levels. However, analysts caution that achieving this target may require a slower, steadier growth cycle spanning five to ten yearsVanEck Sees Bitcoin Reaching Half of Gold’s Market Value^[1].

The firm's thesis hinges on several key factors. First, Bitcoin's adoption by institutional investors is accelerating, driven by the launch of spot ETFs and regulatory clarity in the U.S. and EuropeEthereum ETFs, Treasury Companies Now Hold Over $32B In ETH^[4]. Second, emerging Layer 2 solutions are addressing scalability challenges, enabling Bitcoin to facilitate a larger share of global trade. VanEck's 2024 blog post outlined a long-term vision where Bitcoin settles 10% of international trade and 5% of domestic trade by 2050, with central banks holding 2.5% of their assets in the cryptocurrencyVanEck Sees Bitcoin Reaching Half of Gold’s Market Value^[1]. Third, demographic shifts, including generational wealth transfer and increased digital asset literacy among younger investors, are expected to drive demandVanEck Sees Bitcoin Reaching Half of Gold’s Market Value^[1].

Market dynamics further support the case for Bitcoin's ascension. Gold has outperformed Bitcoin year-to-date, with a 49% return compared to Bitcoin's 31% gainVanEck Sees Bitcoin Reaching Half of Gold’s Market Value^[1]. However, JPMorgan analysts argue that Bitcoin and gold are complementary in the "debasement trade," a strategy betting on inflation-driven asset inflationVanEck Sees Bitcoin Reaching Half of Gold’s Market Value^[1]. This framework suggests that Bitcoin could eventually surpass gold in market value, particularly as central banks and institutional investors increasingly allocate capital to digital assetsEthereum ETFs, Treasury Companies Now Hold Over $32B In ETH^[4].

VanEck's long-term forecast extends beyond the half-gold market cap target. By applying a velocity of money equation, the firm projects Bitcoin could reach $2.9 million by 2050, translating to a total market cap of $61 trillionVanEck Sees Bitcoin Reaching Half of Gold’s Market Value^[1]. This scenario assumes continued innovation in Bitcoin's Layer 2 ecosystem, which the firm estimates could independently generate $7.6 trillion in valueVanEck Sees Bitcoin Reaching Half of Gold’s Market Value^[1]. Such projections contrast sharply with immediate technical concerns, including the approaching 534-day mark post-2024 halving-a historical peak indicator. While past cycles often saw price tops 500–550 days after halving, analysts like Derek Lim of Caladan note that institutional adoption and ETF-driven demand are flattening volatility, suggesting a prolonged bull marketVanEck Sees Bitcoin Reaching Half of Gold’s Market Value^[1].

Critically, VanEck's timeline depends on structural tailwinds such as regulatory clarity and macroeconomic conditions. The firm's July 2025 ChainCheck report highlighted the role of the U.S. dollar's weakness and pro-crypto legislative developments, including the GENIUS Act, in fueling Bitcoin's rallyVanEck Mid-July 2025 Bitcoin ChainCheck^[2]. Meanwhile, market-making firms like Caladan emphasize that Bitcoin's growth is no longer driven by speculative fervor but by institutional-grade infrastructure and yield-seeking capitalVanEck Sees Bitcoin Reaching Half of Gold’s Market Value^[1]. This shift is evident in Ethereum ETFs and corporate treasuries, which now hold 4.7% of Ethereum's supply, a trend that underscores the broader institutionalization of digital assets.

Despite the bullish outlook, risks remain. The Bitcoin halving event's historical significance could trigger short-term corrections, and regulatory uncertainties-particularly in the U.S.-may delay widespread adoption. However, VanEck's research suggests that Bitcoin's role as a hedge against inflation and its growing utility in cross-border settlements position it to outperform gold over the long termVanEck Sees Bitcoin Reaching Half of Gold’s Market Value^[1]. As the cryptocurrency navigates these challenges, its journey toward capturing half of gold's market value will hinge on the interplay of technological innovation, regulatory frameworks, and macroeconomic forces.