Bitcoin News Today: Institutional Adoption Disrupts Bitcoin Cycle Theory as Price Surges Past $123K on $122M ETH Buys

CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju has declared the traditional “Bitcoin cycle theory” obsolete, citing fundamental changes in market dynamics driven by institutional adoption. This marks a pivotal shift in how Bitcoin’s price behavior is analyzed, as historical patterns of retail-driven bull and bear cycles lose relevance. Ju admitted his earlier bearish forecast, which predicted a market peak in April 2025, was incorrect. At the time, he had anticipated a downturn amid geopolitical uncertainties, but Bitcoin surged past $112,000 in May and reached a record $123,236 by July [1]. His revised stance underscores the growing influence of institutional investors, who are reshaping ownership structures and liquidity dynamics.

Ju’s analysis highlights a transition from short-term retail speculation to long-term institutional accumulation. Previously, large whale holders would sell Bitcoin to retail traders, triggering cyclical volatility. Now, “old whales” are transferring holdings to institutional treasury companies and investment funds, stabilizing the market and reducing the impact of short-term trading [1]. This shift has rendered traditional trading strategies less effective, compelling analysts to recalibrate models to account for institutional behavior. The change is further supported by on-chain data showing aggressive institutional buying, including a $122 million ETH purchase by a newly created wallet and WLFI’s $19.46 million ETH acquisition over six days [2].

Regulatory developments also signal a maturing market. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has signaled openness to approving spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, with six major issuers—including 21Shares, Fidelity, and WisdomTree—submitting revised proposals incorporating physical redemption mechanisms [1]. Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart noted this reflects a “positive approach” from regulators, potentially easing institutional entry. Meanwhile, Citadel Securities has urged the SEC to reject exemptions for tokenized stocks, aligning with broader efforts to clarify oversight for digital assets [6].

Institutional confidence is further evident in strategic asset allocations. SharpLink Gaming added $258 million in ETH to its treasury, while Nano Labs increased BNB holdings by $90 million [4]. Grayscale’s transfer of $37.57 million in BTC to Coinbase suggests preparation for ETF-related redemptions, indicating renewed capital flows into custodial platforms [5]. Ethereum’s validator exit queue, now holding $1.9 billion in ETH, highlights stakers’ profit-taking amid a 160% price rebound from April lows. Despite this, staking demand remains robust, with $1.3 billion in ETH waiting to enter the queue [3].

While Bitcoin’s price above $120,000 and BNB’s $803 peak reflect bullish momentum, challenges persist. The SEC’s abrupt rejection of Bitwise’s ETF conversion request and internal debates over crypto ETF standards underscore regulatory uncertainty. However, the broader trend—marked by ETF innovation, institutional accumulation, and regulatory recalibration—suggests the market is approaching a new equilibrium. Analysts now face the task of reconciling these shifts with traditional cycle theory, signaling Bitcoin’s transition to a mainstream asset class.

Sources:

[1] [Bitcoin Cycle Theory and ETF Developments] https://www.block.com

[2] [On-Chain Institutional Accumulation] https://www.panewslab.com

[3] [Ethereum Staking Dynamics] https://www.coindesk.com

[4] [Institutional Treasury Allocations] https://www.globenewswire.com

[5] [Grayscale’s BTC Transfer] On-chain monitoring platforms

[6] [Regulatory Stance on Tokenized Stocks] https://www.block.com