Bitcoin News Today: Hayes: Central Banks Kill Bitcoin's 4-Year Cycle

Arthur Hayes, co-founder of Maelstrom and former BitMEX CEO, has dismissed the notion of an imminent Bitcoin crash, arguing that the cryptocurrency's traditional four-year bull-bear cycle is obsolete amid evolving monetary policies. In a recent essay titled "Long Live the King!", Hayes attributed past bear markets in 2014, 2018, and 2022 to monetary tightening rather than the halving event itself, a stance echoed by CoinDesk in 2023Bitcoin Crash Off the Table as Four-Year Cycle is Dead: Arthur Hayes^[1]. With the U.S. Federal Reserve, Japan, and China adopting increasingly accommodative stances, Hayes predicts the current bull run will persist, defying historical patternsArthur Hayes Declares End to Four-Year Bitcoin Cycle Theory: No Crash in Sight^[2].

The halving cycle, which reduces Bitcoin's block reward every four years, has long been a benchmark for market predictions. Historically, each halving has been followed by a 70–80% price correction 16–18 months laterBitcoin Crash Off the Table as Four-Year Cycle is Dead: Arthur Hayes^[1]. However, Hayes contends that the 2024 halving will not trigger a bear market. He points to global liquidity injections as the key driver, noting that central banks are prioritizing economic stimulus over tightening. The Fed, for instance, cut rates by 25 basis points in September 2025 and plans further reductions of up to 100 basis points within a yearBitcoin Crash Off the Table as Four-Year Cycle is Dead: Arthur Hayes^[1]. Japan's Abenomics-inspired policies and China's focus on ending deflation further support this narrativeArthur Hayes Declares End to Four-Year Bitcoin Cycle Theory: No Crash in Sight^[2].

Hayes also highlighted U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's economic agenda as a tailwind for Bitcoin. Trump's emphasis on deregulation, housing affordability, and debt reduction, coupled with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's plans to relax banking rules, could spur trillions in liquidityCrypto Billionaire Arthur Hayes Says Bitcoin Bull Run Will Not End This Year^[3]. "Listen to our monetary masters in Washington and Beijing. They clearly state that money shall be cheaper and more plentiful," Hayes wrote, underscoring the alignment of global monetary policies with Bitcoin's price trajectoryCrypto Billionaire Arthur Hayes Says Bitcoin Bull Run Will Not End This Year^[3].

While some analysts caution that black swan events or overleveraged markets could disrupt this outlookBitcoin’s 4-Year Cycle Over, Says BitMEX Co-Founder Arthur Hayes^[4], Hayes remains confident. He cited institutional adoption, Bitcoin ETF inflows, and declining exchange reserves as evidence of sustained demandBitcoin’s 4-Year Cycle Over, Says BitMEX Co-Founder Arthur Hayes^[4]. On-chain data also shows long-term holders accumulating BTC, reducing selling pressureBitcoin’s 4-Year Cycle Over, Says BitMEX Co-Founder Arthur Hayes^[4].

The debate extends beyond cyclical patterns. Central banks are increasingly studying Bitcoin's implications for monetary sovereignty. The European Central Bank (ECB) and International Monetary Fund (IMF) have acknowledged Bitcoin's potential to redistribute wealth and challenge traditional fiscal frameworks. Meanwhile, projects like Bitcoin Hyper ($HYPER) aim to bridge Bitcoin's scalability gaps, positioning themselves to benefit from anticipated liquidity surgesBitcoin’s 4-Year Cycle Over, Says BitMEX Co-Founder Arthur Hayes^[4].

Critics, however, argue that Bitcoin's correlation with central bank liquidity remains tenuous. Alphractal's analysis suggests that while liquidity expansions often precede Bitcoin rallies, debt growth outpacing liquidity could introduce fragility. Jamie Coutts of RealVision warned that the U.S. debt-to-liquidity ratio has reached dangerous levels, potentially threatening risk assets.

Despite these risks, Hayes and others predict a $1 million Bitcoin peak by 2028 before a 2029 correctionArthur Hayes Predicts $1M Bitcoin Peak Before 2029 Crash^[5]. This forecast hinges on continued monetary easing and Bitcoin's role as a hedge against fiat devaluation. "Bitcoin has outperformed all other assets historically," Hayes said, emphasizing its value as a store of value amid eroding confidence in traditional currenciesArthur Hayes Predicts $1M Bitcoin Peak Before 2029 Crash^[5].

As central banks navigate a policy trilemma-raising rates, depleting reserves, or adopting Bitcoin themselves-Hayes' thesis reflects a broader shift in financial dynamics. Whether Bitcoin's four-year cycle is truly dead remains to be seen, but the interplay of macroeconomic forces and decentralized finance is reshaping market expectations.

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