Bitcoin News Today: Fidelity's Timmer Flags 2026 as Bitcoin's "Year Off" Amid Extended Bear Outlook

Bitcoin may face a prolonged bear market in 2026, according to Jurien Timmer, Fidelity's Global Macro Director. Timmer noted that the cryptocurrency's recent all-time high of $125,000, reached after 145 months of growth, aligns with historical four-year cycles. He warned that 2026 could be a "year off" for Bitcoin following the conclusion of this cycle.

Timmer emphasized that Bitcoin's bear markets, or "winters," typically last about a year. With the October peak now behind it, the market could see a consolidation phase, with support levels expected between $65,000 and $75,000. This suggests that 2026 may not be a year of strong price action for Bitcoin.

His comments contrast with some other analysts who see a more optimistic outlook. For example, Tom Shaughnessy from Delphi Digital expects new all-time highs for Bitcoin in 2026, provided investor sentiment recovers. He argued that the market is still working through a one-time disastrous liquidation event in October, which caused significant sell-offs.

Market Fundamentals and Regulatory Outlook

The crypto market's future is also being shaped by regulatory developments. Cathy Yoon of Temporal and Harmonic noted that 2026 will likely see meaningful progress on U.S. crypto legislation, building on the recent stablecoin bill. However, she emphasized that the real impact will come from implementation rather than new laws.

Meanwhile, on-chain data suggests that investor sentiment remains bearish. Santiment reported that negative commentary has dominated social media platforms such as X, Reddit, and Telegram as Bitcoin dipped below $85,000. Smart money traders on Nansen's platform are also positioning for a short-term decline in leading cryptocurrencies.

Gold Outperforms as Bitcoin Faces Pressure

Timmer's analysis highlights a growing divergence between Bitcoin and gold. Gold has surged by roughly 65% year-to-date in 2025, outpacing global money supply growth and behaving as expected in a bull market. During its recent correction, gold retained most of its gains-a sign of resilience according to recent analysis.

Bitcoin, by contrast, has underperformed. Timmer noted that Bitcoin's bearish trend could persist into 2026, especially given the historical tendency for bear markets to last around a year. While he remains a long-term bull on Bitcoin, he cautioned that the asset may not see a near-term mean reversion to gold's trajectory as warned by Fidelity's director.

What This Means for Investors

For investors, the outlook suggests a need for caution. The $65,000 to $75,000 range is seen as a key support level for Bitcoin in the near term. A prolonged bear market would test the patience of even the most optimistic crypto bulls.

Regulatory clarity and institutional adoption could provide a counterbalance. The expansion of crypto investment products and growing Wall Street interest in blockchain-based assets may eventually drive renewed demand. However, these factors are unlikely to offset the near-term bearish pressure from market corrections and liquidity issues.