Bitcoin News Today: Fed Rate-Cut Bets and Crypto Crossroads: Bitcoin's EMA Struggles

This week's global macroeconomic landscape is marked by pivotal data releases, evolving central bank expectations, and crypto market volatility. U.S. inflation data, manufacturing, and retail sales figures will shape near-term interest rate trajectories, with Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's recent hesitancy toward rate cuts adding uncertainty to the outlook. The economic calendar features high-volatility events like Thursday's U.S. New Home Sales data, which could influence market sentiment amid ongoing debates about the Fed's tightening cycle.

Bitcoin (BTC) faces technical resistance as its price remains below the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $100,937, with the 200-day EMA at $105,515 and 100-day EMA at $105,562 capping rebounds. A breakdown below $90,000 risks further declines unless BTC reclaims the 50-day EMA as support. Meanwhile, Ethereum (ETH) shows mixed signals, with bulls pushing above $3,000 but bearish momentum persisting due to two Death Cross patterns on its daily chart. XRP remains subdued under $2.30 resistance, though a MACD buy signal offers some optimism for a rebound.

The U.S. dollar's weakness, driven by rising Fed rate-cut expectations, has boosted GBP/USD above 1.3250. The CME FedWatch tool now prices a 84% chance of a 25-basis-point cut in December, up from 30% a week ago, as weak jobless claims and durable goods data reinforce dovish bets. This dynamic benefits the Pound, which also gains from the UK's recent budgetary measures, including a £26 billion tax hike.

Institutional crypto activity is gaining traction, with Bhutan staking 320 ETH ($970,000) via Figment to expand its validator operations. The Himalayan nation, already a major Bitcoin holder, is migrating its digital ID system to Ethereum, signaling growing institutional confidence in blockchain. Meanwhile, Bitcoin ETF investors have returned to profitability as the price reclaims $90,000, with long-term allocators resisting short-term volatility.

The U.S. labor market's "softening but not collapsing" trend continues to weigh on crypto markets. Rising unemployment, slowing payroll growth, and declining job openings create a dual narrative: weaker data fuels risk-off sentiment, while expectations of rate cuts could eventually support risk assets. Bitcoin's recent struggles reflect this tension, as macro funds adjust portfolios between growth concerns and liquidity easing. Analysts emphasize that labor data shapes Fed policy and investor behavior, but crypto's price action remains influenced by a broader mix of onchain activity and ETF flows.