Bitcoin News Today: Fed's Liquidity Shift Could Propel Bitcoin Toward $200K, Hayes Says

Bitcoin's recent plunge to $80,500 has sparked debate over whether the crypto market has found a bottom, with former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes asserting that the worst is over. Hayes, a prominent figure in the crypto space, argued on X that Bitcoin's support at $80,000 is likely to hold as U.S. liquidity conditions shift in favor of risk assets. His optimism hinges on the Federal Reserve's impending end to quantitative tightening, which he views as a critical catalyst for a recovery in Bitcoin and broader markets.

The Fed's decision to halt QT-its balance sheet reduction program-on December 1, as confirmed in its latest policy statement, marks a pivotal shift in monetary policy as confirmed in its latest policy statement. This move is expected to inject liquidity into financial markets, easing pressure on crypto assets that have struggled amid tighter monetary conditions. Hayes highlighted that U.S. banks also increased lending in November, further signaling improving liquidity. "Minor improvements in $ liq," he noted, adding that Bitcoin could test the low $80,000s again but would ultimately stabilize above that level according to Hayes' analysis.

The Fed's pivot has already influenced market sentiment. CME Group's FedWatch Tool data shows, the probability of a 0.25% rate cut at the December meeting surged to 79% as of Monday from 42% a week earlier. Analysts and traders are closely watching for clarity on when quantitative easing (QE) might resume, which Hayes described as essential for Bitcoin's next leg higher. "We are playing for more money printing," he said, suggesting a synchronized easing cycle between the U.S. and China could propel Bitcoin toward $200,000–$250,000 by year-end.

The crypto market's dissonance between institutional adoption and price action has also drawn scrutiny. While Fidelity's Solana ETF and other altcoin products have attracted interest, Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs have struggled with persistent outflows. Meanwhile, on-chain metrics show stablecoin reserves on exchanges hitting a record $72 billion-a pattern historically preceding major Bitcoin rallies according to on-chain data.

Hayes' bullish case rests on the idea that liquidity-driven corrections are necessary before a sustained rebound. He warned that a 10–20% pullback in equities and a rise in Treasury yields to 5% could trigger a broader credit event, temporarily pushing Bitcoin toward $80,000–$85,000. Yet, he remains confident that such a downturn would accelerate Fed and Treasury intervention, reigniting inflationary expectations and lifting Bitcoin to new highs.

The Fed's shift away from QT and the potential for rate cuts have already sparked a tentative crypto market rally. Altcoins like XRP, XLM, and HBAR have outperformed Bitcoin in recent sessions, while analysts cite improving sentiment around macroeconomic clarity as reported by market analysts. Still, Bitcoin's price action remains fragile, with key support levels at $81,000–$83,000 vulnerable to leveraged liquidations according to technical analysis.

As the crypto market navigates this inflection point, Hayes' predictions underscore the delicate balance between liquidity, policy, and market psychology. Whether Bitcoin consolidates near $80,000 or surges toward $200,000 will depend on the Fed's next moves and the broader economic landscape. For now, investors are advised to brace for volatility as the crypto market awaits the next chapter in its turbulent 2025 saga.