Bitcoin News Today: Fed's Dovish Cut vs. Hawkish Caution Leaves Bitcoin in Volatile Limbo

The U.S. Federal Reserve's widely anticipated 25-basis-point rate cut, lowering the federal funds rate to 3.75%-4.00%, has triggered a mixed response in cryptocurrency markets, with Bitcoin (BTC) dropping 3% to around $110,000 post-announcement, according to a Coinotag analysis. The move, confirmed by Chair Jerome Powell, was expected by 97% of market participants per a TradingView roundup, yet Powell's hawkish remarks—suggesting a December rate cut is not guaranteed—overshadowed the dovish action, sparking a "sell the news" reaction noted by that Coinotag analysis. This volatility underscores Bitcoin's sensitivity to central bank policy nuances, where expectations often outweigh actual outcomes.

Technical indicators highlight the asset's short-term fragility. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on daily charts stands at 44.87, indicating a bearish lean, while the four-hour RSI approaches oversold levels at 36.38, the Coinotag analysis adds. The Average Directional Index (ADX) remains below 25 on both timeframes, signaling indecision among traders, the same analysis notes. Meanwhile, Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) present a conflicting picture: the 50-day EMA stays above the 200-day on daily charts, preserving a long-term bullish trend, but a "death cross" on four-hour charts—where the 50-period EMA dips below the 200-period—points to immediate downside momentum, the Coinotag piece observes. Analysts note these crossovers often precede sentiment shifts, though institutional inflows counterbalance short-term selling pressure.

Bitcoin ETFs, a barometer of institutional demand, recorded $202.48 million in net inflows on October 28, bringing cumulative totals to $62.3 billion, the Coinotag analysis reports. This resilience contrasts with $488.43 million in outflows on October 30, primarily from BlackRock's IBIT ETF, according to a TradingView note. Despite the latter, experts emphasize that sustained ETF demand reflects confidence in Bitcoin's long-term value, even as short-term volatility persists.

The Federal Reserve's decision occurs amid a broader context of macroeconomic uncertainty. A U.S. government shutdown, now the second-longest in history, has disrupted economic data releases and exacerbated market jitters, per a CoinDesk piece. Analysts like "CryptoOracle" predict a temporary liquidity crunch could drive Bitcoin into a "fear range" of $65,000–$75,000 before a rebound, contingent on a resolution to the funding impasse, according to an Economic Times interview. Conversely, a 98.3% probability of a Fed rate cut by year-end reported in the TradingView roundup could fuel renewed optimism, with some strategists forecasting a path to $250,000 by 2027, a possibility suggested in that interview.

Meanwhile, geopolitical and regulatory developments add layers to Bitcoin's narrative. France's proposed Bitcoin Strategic Reserve, targeting 2% of the total supply (420,000 BTC) over seven to eight years, was detailed in the TradingView roundup and signals growing institutional acceptance. Similarly, Steak 'n Shake's Bitcoin Treasury initiative, offering 210 satoshis per meal via the Fold app, underscores crypto's encroachment into mainstream commerce.

Key support levels for Bitcoin now sit at $110,000–$111,000, with a breakdown potentially testing $108,000 near the 200-day EMA, the Coinotag analysis warns. A psychological floor at $100,000 looms if selling intensifies, though sustained ETF inflows suggest a deeper correction is improbable, the Coinotag piece adds. Traders are monitoring resistance at $113,000 and $114,500, alongside Powell's post-meeting comments for further cues, as noted in a CoinDesk recap.

The path forward hinges on reclaiming $112,500 with rising ADX above 25, which could pivot Bitcoin toward $120,000, according to the Coinotag analysis. For now, the market remains in a delicate balancing act: short-term bearish signals coexist with long-term bullish fundamentals, as institutional adoption and macroeconomic shifts continue to redefine Bitcoin's role in global finance.

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