Bitcoin News Today: Fed's 97.4% Hold, 61% Cut Outlook to Shape Bitcoin, Altcoin Trajectories

The U.S. Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision on July 30 has become a focal point for cryptocurrency markets, with analysts presenting two contrasting scenarios for Bitcoin (BTC) and altcoins. According to FED Watch, the market assigns a 97.4% probability to the Fed maintaining the current rate in July, with a 2.6% chance of a 25-basis-point hike [1]. However, crypto analyst Paul Barron highlights an unexpected possibility: a surprise rate cut, which could catalyze gains across stocks, real estate, and cryptocurrencies. He notes that historically, the S&P 500 has performed well following rate cuts, suggesting a similar trajectory for riskier assets like BTC and altcoins [1].

A rate cut would likely weaken the U.S. dollar, traditionally boosting non-dollar assets. This scenario could see Bitcoin and altcoins rebounding, particularly if market participants reallocate capital to risk-on assets. Analysts like LongForecast predict a "steady increase" in Bitcoin’s price if the Fed adopts a dovish stance, citing its proximity to $120,000 and Ethereum’s (ETH) approach to $4,000 as indicators of potential upward momentum [4]. XRP and Cardano (ADA), despite recent profit-taking, might regain traction under such conditions [1]. However, Barron cautions that rate cuts could signal economic weakness, fueling inflation concerns and consumer uncertainty [1].

Conversely, if the Fed maintains rates or delays cuts, the market faces heightened volatility. Recent data shows leveraged traders have faced liquidations as Bitcoin dips below $115,000, exacerbating downward pressure [7]. Altcoins like XRP have already seen a 12% weekly decline, reflecting broader fragility [6]. Analysts warn that prolonged tight monetary policy could deepen corrections, especially with inflation remaining "sticky" and no clear compromise from Fed Chair Jerome Powell [7]. A breakdown below Bitcoin’s $115,000–$120,000 range could push prices toward $113,500, a critical support level [7].

The Fed’s decision also intersects with broader crypto dynamics. While Bitcoin ETFs recorded $1.3 billion in inflows this week, Bitcoin’s 11% gain lags Ethereum’s 50% performance [7]. This divergence underscores the role of factors like Ethereum’s staking capabilities and tokenization potential, which some analysts, including Galaxy Digital’s Mike Novogratz, argue could make ETH a short-term outperformer [7]. However, such outcomes depend on macroeconomic clarity and regulatory developments.

Despite divergent forecasts, the Fed’s move remains pivotal. A rate cut could trigger a broad-based rally, while a dovish pause might prolong uncertainty. Traders will closely watch for signals on future policy shifts, with FED Watch pricing a 61% chance of the first rate cut in September 2025 [1]. The outcome will shape risk appetite and liquidity flows, influencing Bitcoin’s dominance and altcoin trajectories in the coming months.

Source: [1] [Fed to Announce Interest Rate Decision This Week! How Will Bitcoin (BTC) and Altcoins Be Affected? Analyst Explains Two Possible Scenarios] https://coinmarketcap.com/community/articles/688788313c1f324d51532f80/

[2] [Fed to Announce Interest Rate Decision This Week! How Will Bitcoin (BTC) and Altcoins Be Affected? Analyst Explains Two Possible Scenarios] https://en.bitcoinsistemi.com/fed-to-announce-interest-rate-decision-this-week-how-will-bitcoin-btc-and-altcoins-be-affected-analyst-explains-two-possible-scenarios/

[4] [Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP showcase bullish ...] https://www.mitrade.com/insights/news/live-news/article-3-991831-20250728

[6] [Traders were hyped. The market said no] https://www.bitdegree.org/crypto/news/traders-were-hyped-the-market-said-no

[7] [Traders were hyped. The market said no] https://www.bitdegree.org/crypto/news/traders-were-hyped-the-market-said-no