Bitcoin News Today: De-dollarization Fuels Bitcoin's Push to Central Bank Reserves: Deutsche Bank Report

Deutsche Bank AG has forecasted that Bitcoin could join gold as a strategic reserve asset for central banks by 2030, citing declining volatility, de-dollarization trends, and growing institutional confidence in digital assets. In a research report, economists Marion Laboure and Camilla Siazon compared Bitcoin's trajectory to gold's historical role as a cornerstone of financial security, noting that both assets offer inflation hedging, low correlation with traditional markets, and fixed supply characteristicsBloomberg^[1]. The analysts highlighted that global central bank gold holdings have surged to over 36,000 tons, while Bitcoin's price has approached $125,000 amid record inflows into gold and Bitcoin ETFs, totaling $5 billion and $4.7 billion in June aloneBloomberg^[1].

The shift is attributed to weakening U.S. dollar dominance, with its share of global reserves falling from 60% in 2000 to 41% by 2025Bloomberg^[1]. This de-dollarization has spurred demand for alternative safe-haven assets, particularly as geopolitical tensions and inflationary pressures persist. Laboure and Siazon emphasized Bitcoin's portability and low transaction costs as advantages over gold, noting that storing large quantities of gold incurs significant logistical and financial costsThe Daily Hodl^[3]. For example, the Bank of England charges $5.11 million annually for storing 400,000 gold bars, a burden Bitcoin circumvents entirelyThe Daily Hodl^[3].

However, the report acknowledges Bitcoin's volatility as a critical hurdle. While its price fluctuations have moderated in recent years, it remains riskier than gold. The analysts argue that Bitcoin's volatility could diminish further as market infrastructure matures, mirroring gold's transition from speculative commodity to stable reserve asset over decadesFortune^[2]. They also noted that Bitcoin's fixed supply of 21 million coins creates disinflationary properties, contrasting with fiat currencies prone to losing purchasing power over timeThe Daily Hodl^[3].

Not all institutions share Deutsche Bank's optimism. JPMorgan analysts contend that stablecoins-pegged to fiat currencies-could revive dollar demand, projecting $1.4 trillion in additional demand by 2027 through decentralized finance channelsBloomberg^[1]. Meanwhile, the World Bank cautioned that crypto-assets currently fail to meet core reserve criteria, including liquidity, safety, and regulatory clarityWorld Bank^[5]. It noted that Bitcoin's market depth lags behind traditional assets and that custody risks, such as hacking threats, remain unresolvedWorld Bank^[5].

Deutsche Bank's report underscores a potential complementary role for Bitcoin in central bank portfolios rather than a direct replacement for gold. The analysts propose that Bitcoin could diversify reserves alongside gold, offering a hedge against geopolitical risks and currency debasementThe Daily Hodl^[3]. This aligns with recent policy experiments, such as the U.S. government's Strategic Bitcoin Reserve initiative and Texas's legislative push for state-level Bitcoin holdingsAnalytics Insight^[4]. However, conservative institutions like the Swiss National Bank have rejected Bitcoin outright, citing volatility and liquidity concernsAnalytics Insight^[4].

Academic studies have also explored Bitcoin's reserve potential. A 2025 study found that small Bitcoin allocations could reduce portfolio risk under certain conditions but concluded that its stability and liquidity fall short of gold or government bondsAnalytics Insight^[4]. Correlation analyses reveal that Bitcoin and gold often move in tandem, though recent divergences-such as gold rising while Bitcoin declines-highlight Bitcoin's inconsistent safe-haven statusAnalytics Insight^[4].

Despite these challenges, Deutsche Bank projects a gradual integration of Bitcoin into central bank reserves by 2030, contingent on regulatory harmonization, improved custody solutions, and further volatility reductionBloomberg^[1]. The report acknowledges that widespread adoption is unlikely in the near term, with gold retaining its dominant role. However, it suggests that countries facing sanctions or dollar shortages may lead the charge, using Bitcoin as an alternative to traditional reservesAnalytics Insight^[4].