Bitcoin News Today: Data Vacuum Turns Bitcoin Trading into Sentiment-Driven Gamble

The end of the 43-day U.S. government shutdown has left a void in critical macroeconomic data, casting a shadow over Bitcoin's price trajectory and complicating Federal Reserve policy decisions. With key employment and inflation reports delayed or unreleased, traders are navigating heightened uncertainty, a scenario that could amplify Bitcoin's volatility as markets grapple with a lack of clear directional signals.

Tim Sun, a senior researcher at HashKey, told Decrypt that the data blackout has transformed Bitcoin's trading dynamics into a sentiment-driven environment, undermining the asset's ability to sustain upward momentum. "In a data-vacuum environment, the primary impact on macro-sensitive assets such as Bitcoin is a sharp rise in uncertainty, which naturally increases volatility," he said. This aligns with broader concerns about the Fed's reliance on real-time data to calibrate monetary policy. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, who has long advocated for a data-dependent approach, now faces a dilemma: balancing risk management amid incomplete economic signals, as noted in a Yahoo Finance report.

The shutdown disrupted the release of October's Consumer Price Index (CPI) and employment data, both of which are pivotal for assessing inflationary pressures and labor market health. While the October CPI is expected to show 3% year-over-year inflation, the delayed data has fueled skepticism about whether the report—and potentially September's figures—will be published on schedule, as reported by Coinotag. For Bitcoin traders, this uncertainty exacerbates challenges in predicting Fed rate decisions. The odds of a December rate cut have dropped to 67.9% from 85%, reflecting growing doubts about the central bank's ability to act decisively, according to Coinotag.

Meanwhile, institutional interest in Bitcoin remains robust, providing a counterweight to macroeconomic headwinds. JPMorgan Chase disclosed a 64% increase in its holdings of BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) during Q3 2025, amassing 5.2 million shares valued at $333 million, as reported by Bitcoinist. The bank's expanded exposure underscores confidence in Bitcoin's long-term potential, even as the ETF faces recent outflows of over $400 million. Separately, Trump Media and Technology Group's Bitcoin holdings have surged to over 11,500 BTC, valued at $1.3 billion, highlighting the asset's growing role as a strategic reserve, as noted in a TradingView article.

Bitcoin's price action reflects the tug-of-war between macroeconomic uncertainty and institutional adoption. After peaking at $126,000 in early October, Bitcoin has retreated to around $102,900, a 15% pullback, according to Bitcoinist. Short-term volatility has been amplified by a $19 billion liquidation event in recent weeks, though traders remain cautiously optimistic about potential rebounds if dovish Fed signals emerge, as suggested by Coinotag.

The Fed's evolving stance on AI's economic impact adds another layer of complexity. Governor Michael Barr warned at the Singapore Fintech Festival that AI's transformative potential could reshape industries and influence monetary policy, though adoption hurdles persist, as reported by Benzinga. While AI-driven productivity gains might eventually support non-inflationary growth, near-term challenges—including regulatory constraints and uneven sector adoption—could prolong economic fragility, according to Benzinga.

As the market awaits clarity on the October CPI and employment data, Bitcoin's path remains entangled with broader macroeconomic narratives. The interplay between institutional demand, Fed policy, and AI-driven economic shifts will likely dictate whether Bitcoin reclaims its previous highs—or succumbs to prolonged volatility in a data-starved environment.