Bitcoin News Today: Data Vacuum from Shutdown Complicates Fed's Bitcoin Policy Moves

The U.S. Federal Reserve convened an emergency meeting with Wall Street leaders on Wednesday as Bitcoin hit its most oversold level since 2023, trading near $104,000 amid heightened market uncertainty. The cryptocurrency's price consolidation reflects broader macroeconomic turbulence, including a near-record government shutdown that delayed critical economic data releases and clouded expectations for Federal Reserve policy moves. Meanwhile, institutional demand for Bitcoin showed tentative signs of recovery, with U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs recording a $523.98 million inflow on Tuesday.

The government shutdown, which halted operations at key agencies like the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Bureau of Economic Analysis, has left markets in a "data vacuum," complicating efforts to gauge inflation and employment trends. Press secretary Karoline Leavitt stated that the shutdown "made it hard to gather the necessary data" to compile key reports, including October jobs and inflation figures. A resolution, pending House approval and President Trump's signature, could ease liquidity pressures and restart data flows, though analysts warn the measure is a short-term fix that avoids deeper fiscal negotiations.

Bitcoin's price trajectory remains tied to macroeconomic developments. While the end of the shutdown could trigger volatility, the absence of a sustained catalyst suggests BTC may remain range-bound in the near term. Technical indicators reinforce this view: Bitcoin's weekly chart shows a 20% correction from its all-time high, with the 50-week EMA at $100,862 acting as a critical support level. If breached, the asset could test the 100-week EMA at $85,508. The Relative Strength Index and MACD also signal bearish momentum, with RSI at 41 and MACD in a bearish crossover.

Institutional appetite for Bitcoin, however, has not fully waned. Despite a week of net outflows totaling $1.22 billion, Tuesday's inflow marked a reversal, suggesting renewed interest from asset managers. This aligns with broader trends: Michael Saylor reaffirmed his company's Bitcoin accumulation strategy, forecasting the cryptocurrency would outperform gold and the S&P 500 by year-end.

Regulatory developments also shaped the crypto landscape. Brazil proposed legislation to liquidate seized cryptocurrencies, treating them like foreign currencies to dismantle organized crime networks. The move, part of an "anti-faction bill," allows financial institutions to sell assets pre-trial, targeting groups like Comando Vermelho.

The Fed's policy uncertainty further muddied the outlook. Odds of a December rate cut dropped to 52%, a near-coin-toss scenario, as inflation hawks within the central bank pushed to delay easing. A divided FOMC has left markets wary, with Boston Fed President Susan Collins emphasizing a "high bar" for further cuts. Traders now price a 25-basis-point cut at the December meeting, which would lower the benchmark rate to 3.5%-3.75%.

Bitcoin's institutional and regulatory dynamics highlight its evolving role in global finance. As the Fed navigates a fragile economic landscape and Brazil tightens crypto controls, BTC's path will depend on both macroeconomic clarity and regulatory alignment.