Bitcoin News Today: CryptoQuant CEO Declares Bitcoin 4-Year Cycle Obsolete Due to Institutional Adoption

Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant, has publicly declared the traditional Bitcoin cycle theory obsolete, signaling a transformative shift in how the cryptocurrency market is analyzed. This theory, which historically predicted recurring four-year bull and bear cycles driven by whale accumulation and retail investor behavior, is no longer applicable in the current environment, according to Ju. His remarks come after an admission that his earlier bearish forecast—predicting the end of Bitcoin’s bull market in early April—was incorrect. At the time, Bitcoin traded near $80,000 amid geopolitical concerns, but the asset surged past $123,236 by July, leaving investors who followed his advice with missed opportunities [1].

Ju attributes the breakdown of the classic cycle to institutional adoption, which has fundamentally altered Bitcoin’s ownership patterns. Previously, large holders (“whales”) sold their positions to retail traders, creating the boom-and-bust dynamic. Today, he notes, old whales are transferring Bitcoin to institutional treasury companies and long-term investment funds, stabilizing the holder base and reducing the influence of short-term traders. This shift has rendered traditional trading strategies less effective, underscoring the need for updated analytical frameworks that account for institutional participation and capital flows [1].

The evolving landscape is further reflected in broader market dynamics. Institutional demand for crypto assets has intensified, with entities like SharpLink Gaming recently purchasing $258 million in ETH. Meanwhile, Ethereum’s validator exit queue reached 519,000 ETH ($1.9 billion) since January 2024, highlighting growing staking activity. These developments suggest a prolonged bullish phase, driven by improved regulatory clarity and institutional confidence. For instance, the U.S. SEC’s consideration of a streamlined ETF approval framework and proposals from six major issuers—including Fidelity and WisdomTree—indicate growing acceptance of crypto as a mainstream asset class [2].

However, challenges remain. Regulatory tensions persist, with South Korean authorities restricting ETFs from expanding crypto holdings under 2017 rules, while Citadel Securities has urged the SEC to avoid exemptions for tokenized stocks to prevent liquidity fragmentation [3]. Additionally, macroeconomic factors such as U.S. Treasury Secretary Benson’s advocacy for lower interest rates and potential rate cuts under a new administration could influence capital allocation dynamics, indirectly impacting crypto valuations [4].

While Ju’s analysis focuses on structural changes, some experts, including Fidelity’s Jurrien Timmer, argue that Bitcoin’s four-year cycle still holds relevance based on its historical price patterns. This divergence highlights the complexity of forecasting in a market shaped by new participants and evolving infrastructure. Investors are advised to consider multiple perspectives, integrating both institutional trends and cyclical indicators into their decision-making [1].

Ki Young Ju’s acknowledgment of the cycle theory’s obsolescence marks a pivotal moment for crypto analysis. As institutional adoption continues to redefine market fundamentals, analysts must adapt their models to account for factors such as staking yields, ETF mechanics, and cross-chain innovations. The interplay of these elements suggests a nuanced future for Bitcoin, where traditional benchmarks coexist with novel variables shaping market behavior.

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