Bitcoin News Today: Crypto Treasury Bubble Bursts as Firms Trade Below Bitcoin Value
Japanese crypto treasury firm Metaplanet (3350) has become the first major player to trade below a 1x multiple to net asset value (mNAV) since adopting its BitcoinBTC-- acquisition strategyMSTR-- in 2024, signaling a pivotal moment in the crypto treasury sector[1]. The company's mNAV, which measures enterprise value relative to the net asset value of its Bitcoin holdings, fell to 0.99 on October 14, 2025[2]. This decline reflects a broader cooling in the market for corporate Bitcoin holdings, with 15% of publicly traded digital asset treasury (DAT) firms now trading below 1x mNAV[1].
Metaplanet's enterprise value now lags behind the $3.5 billion in Bitcoin it holds-30,823 BTC-on its balance sheet[1]. The company's share price dropped 12% on Tuesday to 482 yen, despite a 35% year-to-date gain[1]. This follows a seven-point decline in its mNAV since mid-June, driven by a 75% drop in its stock price from a peak of 1,895 yen in June[2]. The firm temporarily paused Bitcoin purchases in early October, with its last acquisition made on September 30[2].
The mNAV metric, which incorporates enterprise value (market cap plus debt) divided by Bitcoin's net asset value[1], has become a critical barometer for evaluating crypto treasury companies. When mNAV falls below 1, it indicates the company trades at a discount to its Bitcoin holdings, potentially signaling investor concerns over debt, operational risks, or market sentiment[2]. For Metaplanet, total debt stands at $24.68 million[1], while its Bitcoin holdings are valued at roughly $3.5 billion.
The decline contrasts with Strategy (MSTR), the largest Bitcoin treasury holder, which maintains a 1.48x mNAV despite holding 640,250 BTC valued at $72 billion[1]. Strategy's stock, however, has underperformed Bitcoin, rising just 5% year-to-date compared to the cryptocurrency's 19% gain[1]. Analysts attribute the divergent trajectories to differing capital strategies: Strategy relies on convertible debt and preferred shares, while Metaplanet employs zero-interest bonds and options.
Forbes reported that 228 public companies announced Bitcoin treasury strategies in 2025, collectively investing $148 billion into crypto[1]. Yet, the recent mNAV declines highlight growing skepticism. Smartkarma analyst Mark Chadwick described the trend as a "popping of a bubble," noting that while some long-term Bitcoin bulls see discounted shares as an opportunity, the broader market is reassessing the value proposition of corporate crypto holdings[2].
Metaplanet's challenges are compounded by macroeconomic pressures. The U.S. presidential election and Trump's proposed 100% tariff on Chinese imports triggered a $19 billion liquidation event in crypto markets[6], exacerbating volatility. Meanwhile, BlackRock's IBIT ETF has bucked the trend with $134 million in inflows over 10 consecutive days, suggesting shifting demand from institutional investors.
As the company navigates this inflection point, its "555 Million Plan" aims to acquire 210,000 BTC by 2027, representing 1% of the total Bitcoin supply. Yet, with its mNAV below 1 and a 70% stock price drop since June[6], Metaplanet's aggressive expansion strategy faces mounting scrutiny. The firm's ability to maintain investor confidence amid a broader market correction will likely determine whether it remains a trailblazer or becomes a cautionary tale in the evolving Bitcoin treasury landscape.
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