Metaplanet (3350) has broken below a 1x multiple to net asset value (mNAV) for the first time since initiating its bitcoinBTC-- treasury strategy in 2024, marking a pivotal moment in the crypto treasury sector. The Japanese firm's share price fell 12% on Tuesday to 482 yen, translating to an mNAV of 0.99, according to its website[1]. This threshold-where a company's market value equals its crypto holdings-has long been seen as a critical benchmark for firms leveraging bitcoin as a core asset. The decline follows a 70% plunge in Metaplanet's stock since mid-June, raising questions about the sustainability of the crypto treasury model[2].
The mNAV metric, which compares enterprise value to the net value of bitcoin holdings, has become a key indicator for investors. A value above 1.0 signals a premium, while a drop below 1.0 reflects a discount, often tied to debt, operational risks, or market sentiment. Metaplanet's current mNAV includes $24.68 million in debt and excludes certain financial instruments, yet its bitcoin holdings remain substantial: 30,823 BTC valued at $3.5 billion, making it the fourth-largest bitcoin treasury holder globally[1]. Despite this, its share price remains 75% below its June peak of 1,895 yen[3].
The broader market context reveals a cooling trend in crypto treasury strategies. Forbes reports that 15% of digital asset treasury (DAT) firms now trade below 1x mNAV, with 228 publicly traded companies investing $148 billion into crypto in 2025[1]. KindlyMD (NAKA), another bitcoin treasury firm, also trades at 0.959x mNAV, while MicroStrategy (MSTR)-the largest holder with 640,250 BTC-maintains a premium of 1.48x mNAV[1]. However, MSTR's stock has underperformed, gaining just 5% year-to-date compared to bitcoin's 19% rise, highlighting the challenges of sustaining premiums[1].
Analysts have interpreted Metaplanet's mNAV drop as a "bubble popping," with some viewing the discount as a potential long-term buying opportunity[2]. Mark Chadwick of Smartkarma noted that the decline mirrors the dot-com crash of the 2000s, where speculative hype gave way to valuation corrections[3]. The firm's recent suspension of bitcoin purchases-its last acquisition was 5,268 BTC on Sept. 30-has exacerbated concerns about its ability to grow its treasury while maintaining investor confidence[3].
Technical indicators also suggest further downward pressure. Metaplanet's share price has formed a "death cross" pattern, where the 50-day and 200-day exponential moving averages intersect, a bearish signal in technical analysis. A breakdown below ¥300 could trigger a wave of selling, aligning with broader market skepticism about the viability of crypto treasuries. Meanwhile, the firm's diluted mNAV of 1.387-down sharply from a peak of 22.59 in July 2024-underscores the erosion of its premium.
The decline reflects broader challenges for the sector. Companies like Metaplanet and MSTRMSTR-- have relied on aggressive capital raises and convertible debt to fund bitcoin purchases, but slowing accumulation and shifting investor sentiment are testing the model's durability. As regulatory scrutiny intensifies and market volatility persists, the ability of these firms to maintain premiums will hinge on operational discipline, transparent governance, and the ability to grow bitcoin per share without overleveraging.
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