Bitcoin News Today: Crypto's Rebound: Correction or Onset of Bear Market?

Crypto markets posted a modest rebound Friday, with Bitcoin (BTC-USD) edging higher amid broader uncertainty over macroeconomic conditions and geopolitical developments. The $3.4 trillion digital asset sector, according to a Coindesk report, trimmed weekly losses after a volatile month marked by trillion-dollar declines and widespread liquidations. Analysts remain divided on whether the recent pullback signals a short-term correction or the onset of a prolonged bear market, with historical precedents and shifting monetary policy adding layers of complexity to the outlook.

The market's resilience echoes patterns from 2024, when Bitcoin dropped from $71,000 to $66,000 in early November before surging 60% to $108,000 within 45 days, according to a BeInCrypto analysis. "History shows crypto can rebound sharply after sharp declines," said Ash Crypto, noting that ether (ETH-USD) and altcoins had previously surged in the weeks following November 2024's selloff. This year's seasonal tailwinds—coupled with macroeconomic optimism—have fueled similar hopes. The Federal Reserve's December rate cut is widely anticipated, according to a Coinotag piece, with officials citing cooling inflation (3% year-over-year in September, in a Coinotag report) and a fragile labor market as justification for easing policy. "The Fed's dovish pivot supports risk assets," said a source, adding that quantitative tightening's end on Dec. 1, as noted in that BeInCrypto analysis, and ongoing bond purchases could further buoy crypto liquidity.

However, technical indicators suggest caution. Bitcoin failed to hold its $106,000 to $108,000 consolidation zone in a Seeking Alpha analysis, dipping below $100,000—a level analysts view as critical. A close below this threshold could trigger fresh selloffs, with Solana (SOL-USD) and XRP (XRP-USD) already retesting lower levels, as the Coindesk report observed. Institutional demand has also waned, with $799 million in net outflows from BTC ETFs last week, according to a Bitget report, signaling a shift in market dynamics. Meanwhile, the U.S.-China trade deal, which reduced tariffs on rare earth metals as noted in that Coinotag piece, offers some relief for crypto hardware manufacturers but leaves unresolved tensions over AI chip exports, casting doubt on long-term infrastructure growth.

The job market's slowdown further complicates the outlook. Indeed's Job Postings Index fell to 101.9—the lowest since February 2021—according to Coinotag data—as employers curtail hiring amid economic uncertainty. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has urged faster Fed rate cuts to address housing sector struggles, a point raised in that Coinotag report, though analysts caution that policy easing alone may not offset broader risk-off sentiment. "Bitcoin's holding above the 50-week moving average for now, but intraday charts show sellers are trying to seize control again," said FxPro's Alex Kuptsikevich, as quoted in the Coindesk report.

Investor behavior remains a key wildcard. On-chain data reveals conflicting signals: "accumulator addresses" added 375,000 BTC in the past month, the Coindesk report noted, while short-term holders continue exiting on rebounds—a hallmark of late-stage corrections. The market's fate may ultimately hinge on macroeconomic clarity, with December's Fed decision and Trump-Xi trade developments highlighted in that Coinotag piece poised to shape sentiment. For now, crypto remains caught between historical bullishness and near-term fragility, as buyers defend key levels and bears test the limits of market resilience.