The cryptocurrency market is grappling with a historic correction following a 100% tariff announcement by U.S. President Donald Trump on Chinese imports, triggering over $19 billion in liquidations and sending BitcoinBTC-- plummeting from an all-time high of $125,000 to near $102,000 within hours . Amid the chaos, analyst Ash Crypto-whose "pump then dump" warning proved prescient-has turned bullish again, forecasting a parabolic rebound that could see Bitcoin reach $150,000 by year-end and EthereumETH-- hit $8,000 [1].
The October 10 selloff, described as the largest liquidation event in crypto history , wiped out 1.6 million traders and exposed the fragility of leveraged positions. While institutional players and retail investors remain divided, Ash Crypto argues the crash has already served its purpose: cleansing the market of weak hands and setting the stage for a Q4 rally. "When fear peaks, strong buyers usually step in," he stated, emphasizing that bearish sentiment must fully crystallize before a reversal gains momentum [1].
[2]
The analyst's optimism is underpinned by three key factors. First, the recent liquidations have eliminated over-leveraged traders, reducing short-term volatility. Second, sustained institutional interest-bolstered by upcoming spot ETFs-could drive demand in the fourth quarter. Third, the potential for Federal Reserve rate cuts, expected by late 2025, may further fuel investor appetite [1].
Market participants remain skeptical, however. Critics argue that Ash Crypto's track record of accurate predictions is often cherry-picked, and the crypto market's inherent volatility makes long-term forecasts unreliable [1]. Yet, historical parallels offer a counterpoint. Much like the 18th-century South Sea Bubble, today's downturn could be a precursor to a new cycle of speculative fervor, with savvy investors poised to capitalize on the reset [1].
[3]
Technical indicators also support a potential rebound. Bitcoin's 200-day moving average currently sits at $104,464 [5], and a sustained break above this level could reignite bullish momentum. Meanwhile, on-chain data reveals that large holders are accumulating, with whale balances rising at an annualized pace of 331,000 BTC-outpacing growth seen in previous cycles .
The geopolitical context complicates the outlook. Trump's tariffs have exacerbated macroeconomic uncertainty, with U.S.-China trade tensions spilling into traditional markets. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq fell sharply on October 10, mirroring crypto's decline . However, some analysts view the crash as a necessary purge rather than a collapse. "This was a black swan event," said David Jeong of Tread.fi, noting that institutional over-leverage, not fundamentals, drove the selloff .
[4]
If Ash Crypto's projections hold, Bitcoin's trajectory will hinge on a delicate balance of macroeconomic signals and market psychology. A Fed rate cut in late 2025 could catalyze a rally, while renewed trade tensions or regulatory crackdowns might derail the recovery. For now, traders are monitoring key levels: Bitcoin must hold above $100,000 to avoid signaling the end of a three-year bull cycle .
As the crypto market digests these headwinds, the October crash has created a defining stress test for this bull cycle. Whether it marks the beginning of a deeper correction or a temporary setback remains to be seen. But for those who survived the purge, the stage may be set for a dramatic Q4 turnaround-provided the broader economic landscape cooperates.
[5]
Comentarios
Aún no hay comentarios