Bitcoin News Today: Crypto's Fragile Rebound: Fed Signals vs. $5.9B Expiry and Geopolitical Risks

Bitcoin's recent price swings highlight the delicate balance between macroeconomic optimism and persistent volatility in the cryptocurrency market. Softer inflation data from Canada, in a Times of India report, coupled with Federal Reserve signals of potential crypto payment system access reported by Benzinga, have provided a temporary tailwind for digital assets. However, analysts warn that structural risks—including $5.9 billion in expiring options and geopolitical trade tensions—remain significant headwinds.

The Federal Reserve's announcement of plans to explore payment accounts for crypto firms sparked a brief rebound in Bitcoin, which surged to $114,000 before retreating to $108,000. This development, together with Canada's 2.4% annual inflation rate (driven by food and shelter costs), has helped craft a "soft landing" narrative for risk assets, though core inflation measures such as CPI-median at 3.2% suggest underlying price pressures persist, according to the Times of India report and the Benzinga coverage.

Institutional appetite for Bitcoin remains strong, with spot ETFs recording $20.33 million in inflows led by BlackRock's IBIT, which added $108 million alone, per a CoinGabbar report. Hyperscale Data (NYSE: GPUS), a firm increasingly positioning itself as a crypto-native infrastructure player, now holds a Bitcoin treasury valued at $60 million—66% of its market capitalization—according to a Seeking Alpha report. However, Ethereum faces contrasting dynamics, with spot ETFs seeing $128 million in outflows as investors take profits ahead of key economic data releases, the CoinGabbar report notes.

Market structure indicators underscore the fragility of current gains: Bitcoin futures open interest (OI) has plummeted 23% to $72 billion since peaking at $94 billion, reflecting risk-off sentiment amid U.S.-China trade uncertainty and Middle East tensions, as highlighted in an FXStreet note. Meanwhile, $12.98 billion in BTC short and long positions could face liquidation on a 10% price move, according to trader analyses referenced in the Benzinga piece.

Analysts remain divided on the outlook. "Bulls are in control technically, but sentiment shifts rapidly," noted Daan Crypto Trades, highlighting Bitcoin's consolidation between $107,000 and $112,000. Ted Pillows, another trader, emphasized the "max pain" scenario favoring a bullish breakout, though cautioned that U.S. CPI data (expected at 3.1%) and the Fed's November policy meeting will be pivotal.

The interplay between macroeconomic data and institutional positioning creates a paradoxical landscape. While Canada's inflation data and Fed signals hint at easing monetary policy, the broader market remains anchored by geopolitical risks and $5.9 billion in expiring options set to amplify short-term volatility, as earlier reporting from the Times of India and Benzinga suggests. For now, Bitcoin's ability to hold above $110,000 will be critical in determining whether this rally marks a sustainable recovery or a prelude to deeper correction.