Bitcoin News Today: Crypto's Delicate Balancing Act: ETF Flows and Fed Policy Dictate Next Move

Bitcoin (BTC) and major altcoins remain in a delicate balancing act as market participants weigh the potential for a rebound against persistent macroeconomic uncertainties. On Wednesday, Bitcoin traded above $87,000, supported by modest inflows into U.S. Bitcoin ETFs totaling $128 million on Tuesday, signaling renewed institutional interest after weeks of cautious behavior. Ethereum (ETH) and XRP also held steady above key support levels, though technical indicators suggest the broader market remains vulnerable to further declines. The Federal Reserve's upcoming December policy decision looms large, with traders currently pricing in an 81% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut, a move that could bolster risk appetite for crypto assets.

The ETF landscape has become a critical barometer for market sentiment. Ethereum ETFs recorded their third consecutive day of inflows, with $79 million added on Tuesday alone, while XRP ETFs saw $35 million in fresh capital, pushing cumulative inflows to $622 million. Bitcoin ETFs, however, faced a setback with $151 million in outflows on Monday, highlighting the fragility of institutional demand. Analysts note that sustained ETF inflows could reinforce a bullish bias, but any resumption of outflows would likely deepen bearish momentum.

Technical analysis paints a mixed picture. Bitcoin remains below its 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day exponential moving averages (EMAs), with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovering near oversold territory. A daily close above $87,000 would be critical to affirm a near-term recovery, but a breakdown below $80,600 could reignite selling pressure. Ethereum's price action is equally precarious, with the formation of a Death Cross pattern on the daily chart-where the 50-day EMA crossed below the 200-day EMA-reinforcing bearish sentiment. XRP, while showing early signs of a bullish crossover on the MACD indicator, remains constrained by declining EMAs and a RSI near 46, suggesting limited upward momentum.

The broader market environment remains influenced by external factors. China's Bitcoin mining activity is rebounding, driven by cheap electricity in regions like Xinjiang, potentially increasing hash rate stability. Meanwhile, a record $185 billion in ERC-20 stablecoin supply-a traditional bull signal-suggests liquidity remains abundant for trading and derivatives activity, even as global M2 growth cools.

Price predictions for the coming weeks emphasize caution. Bitcoin's 20-day EMA at $94,620 acts as a key resistance level; a failure to break above could trigger a retest of the $73,777 support. Ethereum faces hurdles near $3,350, with a breakdown below $2,623 potentially targeting $2,400. XRP's path depends on a breakout above the $2.38 50-day EMA, with a successful move to $2.52 offering a glimpse of larger resistance. Altcoins like BNB, Solana (SOL), and Dogecoin (DOGE) face similar challenges, with sellers dominating at key technical levels despite occasional buying interest.

Despite these dynamics, macroeconomic risks persist. The Fed's decision in December, combined with concerns over inflation and geopolitical tensions, continues to weigh on investor confidence. Institutional investors will closely monitor ETF flows and price action over the next two weeks to gauge whether the market can sustain a recovery. For now, the path of least resistance for Bitcoin and altcoins appears bearish, though tactical buyers may find opportunities in oversold conditions.