Bitcoin News Today: Cardano (ADA) surges 19% to $0.8496 as altcoin market rallies

Cardano (ADA) has recently shown significant momentum, surging from $0.72 to $0.86. This breakout has sparked excitement in the market, but analysts remain cautious about the sustainability of this momentum. Currently, ADA is trading at $0.8496, and its price action appears technically stronger. After bouncing from $0.72, ADA cleared key resistance levels at $0.75 and $0.80, briefly testing $0.8650 before retracing to $0.8496. This movement coincided with the rise of Bitcoin and Ethereum, which lifted the entire altcoin market.

Technically, ADA is above its 100-hour simple moving average and holding a bullish trendline at $0.8280. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is above 50, indicating a bullish trend, although some investors are hesitant to call this a full-blown trend reversal. The broader altcoin recovery is currently favoring high-beta tokens, which raises questions about ADA’s near-term appeal. Analysts note that ADA’s large holder netflows are neutral, while whale accumulation in Ethereum and Solana is visible. Despite this, the long-term fundamentals for Cardano remain strong. Messari on-chain data shows that developer activity is high, and the network’s total value locked (TVL) is growing, thanks to decentralized finance (DeFi) platforms like Minswap and Indigo Protocol.

In the bullish scenario, ADA needs to decisively break the $0.8650 resistance level. A daily close above this level could push it to $0.90, with the next immediate target at $0.98. Changelly analysts suggest that a close above $0.90 could trigger fear of missing out (FOMO) among sidelined investors, providing the momentum needed to break $1. The hourly MACD is strengthening in the bullish zone, and ADA is holding at $0.8280, indicating a potential new upward leg. If ADA follows the broader market trend, it could reach $1.00 this quarter.

However, the bearish case presents a different outlook. Despite the bullish structure, traders are closely watching the $0.8650 level. If ADA fails to break this resistance, it could see a pullback to $0.80, a support zone backed by the 50% Fibonacci retracement from the $0.7113 swing low. A break below $0.7880 would invalidate the bullish thesis and bring back the risk of falling below $0.75. Sentiment remains fragile, and if Bitcoin or Ethereum experience volatility, ADA’s low relative strength could make it more prone to deeper pullbacks. A reversal in macro risk appetite or another altcoin sell-off could delay ADA’s breakout indefinitely.

According to analysts, ADA is at a critical point. Its recent push above $0.80 has improved the technicals, but failing to clear $0.8650 will trap it in a range. On-chain strength and developer momentum are positive long-term indicators, but short-term, ADA needs to show it can attract capital and outperform its high-beta peers. Investors and traders are advised to watch market-wide trends, especially Bitcoin’s dominance, to see if ADA will be taken up in the next wave or left behind again.