Bitcoin News Today: Bulls and Bears Lock Horns at Bitcoin's $112K Crossroads Amid ETF Surge and Derivatives Turmoil

Bitcoin's price dropped $4,000 to $112,000 in early October 2025 after reaching a record high of $124,500 in mid-August, triggering renewed scrutiny of key support levels and market dynamics. The decline followed a $280 million liquidation event on futures markets, primarily on Bybit, which erased leveraged long positions and pushed Bitcoin below critical psychological barriers. Analysts highlight the $112,000 level as a pivotal battleground, with its 61.8% Fibonacci retracement significance and historical role as a consolidation zone. Trading volume at this level spiked 35% above the 30-day average, underscoring its strategic importance.

Technical analysis identifies three key support zones: $108,500–$110,200 (strong support), $107,200 (secondary support), and $100,000 (major support). A breakdown below $112,000 could trigger a test of the $98,000–$100,000 range, per crypto analyst Cas Abbé. Resistance levels include the 50-day moving average at $113,800 and the year-to-date high of $115,750–$117,000. The 50-day and 100-day moving averages currently converge at $113,200, acting as a critical threshold for bulls.

Institutional activity remains a double-edged sword. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $3.24 billion in inflows over the past week, the second-highest weekly inflow on record, driven by expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts and seasonal "Uptober" optimism. Meanwhile, Japanese firm Metaplanet added 5,419 BTC to its holdings, raising its total to 25,555 BTC and positioning it as the fifth-largest corporate holder globally. However, ETF outflows of $902 million in late September and increased leverage in derivatives markets introduce short-term volatility risks.

Historical patterns suggest a bearish bias in September, with Bitcoin closing negative in seven of the last 10 years. Yet 2025 appears to buck the trend, with the cryptocurrency up 8% month-to-date as of September 30. Analysts caution that September's volatility, combined with the seasonal risk of a larger correction, remains a wildcard. On-chain data reveals 95,800 BTC in steady accumulation over the past month, with short-term holder cost bases near $111,400 acting as a critical "battle line" between bulls and bears.

The path forward hinges on Bitcoin's ability to reclaim $112,000–$113,200. A sustained breakout above $114,000 could reinvigorate the bull trend, potentially targeting $115,000–$120,000 and beyond. Conversely, a breakdown below $107,200 might signal a broader market shift, with $100,000 as the next major test. Glassnode data indicates that 90% of Bitcoin supply remains in profit, but this figure could erode if institutional inflows slow or macroeconomic headwinds intensify.

Market participants are also monitoring the Federal Reserve's policy trajectory, with the October jobs report and Powell's speech serving as key catalysts. A dovish pivot could accelerate inflows into Bitcoin ETFs, tightening supply and reinforcing the $112,000 support. However, elevated leverage in derivatives markets and crowded positioning-particularly in the $117,000–$120,000 range-pose risks of short-term corrections.

[1] BTCC (https://www.btcc.com/en-US/square/C0inX/1040241)

[2] Blockchain.News (https://blockchain.news/flashnews/bitcoin-btc-price-breaks-usd-112k-support)

[3] FxLeaders (https://www.fxleaders.com/news/2025/09/23/bitcoin-tests-critical-support-at-112k-as-280m-in-leveraged-longs-get-liquidated/)

[5] BeInCrypto (https://beincrypto.com/bitcoin-uptober-volatility-bullish-trend/)

[6] FinanceFeeds (https://financefeeds.com/bitcoin-etfs-post-second-biggest-inflows-ever-eyes-turn-to-150k-target/)

[8] TheCurrencyAnalytics (https://thecurrencyanalytics.com/altcoins/bitcoin-holds-110k-amid-etf-outflows-and-consolidation-ahead-of-october-201272)

[9] Cointelegraph (https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-euphoric-phase-cools-112k-key-btc-price-level)