Bitcoin News Today: Bullish Bets vs. Max Pain: $17B Crypto Expiry to Test Market Resolve

The cryptocurrency derivatives market is bracing for one of its largest quarterly options expiries in 2025, with over $17.27 billion in Bitcoin and Ethereum contracts set to settle on Deribit. This event, the largest of the year so far, represents 30% of the total open interest in the market and is expected to trigger heightened volatility as traders and market makers adjust positions ahead of settlement. Bitcoin accounts for $15 billion of the notional value, while Ethereum contributes $2.3 billion, with both assets trading above their respective "max pain" levels, where the largest number of option holders face potential losses .

Bitcoin's open interest distribution reveals a significant skew toward put options, with a put-to-call ratio of 0.74, indicating a cautious but overall bullish sentiment. The max pain level for Bitcoin is set at $102,000, below its current price of $107,555, creating downward pressure as market makers hedge their exposures. For Ethereum, the put-to-call ratio of 0.52 suggests stronger bullish conviction, though its max pain level at $2,200 is closer to its current price of $2,452, amplifying concerns about downside risks .

Analysts at Greeks.live highlighted the fragility of Ethereum's price action, noting that the altcoin's drop below $4,000 last week triggered a shift in market sentiment. Implied volatility for Ethereum remains elevated, with put premiums significantly exceeding call premiums, signaling a growing expectation of downside risk. The firm also observed that market makers are entering "gamma amplification" territory, where hedging flows could accelerate price swings . In contrast, Bitcoin's more consolidated price range suggests lower volatility compared to Ethereum, though the sheer size of expiring options could still influence short-term trends .

Deribit data underscores the scale of the event, with Bitcoin's expiring contracts totaling $15 billion across 139,000 contracts-four times the volume seen in the previous week's $4.3 billion expiry. Ethereum's 939,000 expiring contracts, valued at $2.3 billion, reflect a similar surge in activity. The timing coincides with Bitcoin's fourth attempt to establish $108,000 as support, a level critical for determining whether the asset transitions into a new uptrend or faces extended consolidation .

Institutional activity further complicates the outlook. Billionaire Philippe Laffont recently added Bitcoin to his "Fantastic 40" list of top investments, projecting a $5 trillion market cap by 2030, while Bakkt filed for a $1 billion shelf registration to fund Bitcoin acquisitions. However, immediate challenges persist, including declining Bitcoin miner revenues and Ethereum's mixed institutional positioning. SharpLink Gaming, for instance, has become the largest public Ethereum holder with $457 million in holdings, contrasting with broader market uncertainties .

Economist Timothy Peterson's simulations suggest a 50% probability of Bitcoin reaching $140,000 by the end of October, aligning with its historical October performance of 20.75% average gains. While the path to $140,000 requires a 14.7% rise from current levels, the dovish macroeconomic backdrop and institutional demand provide tailwinds. However, analysts caution that short-term corrections-historically around 5% after hitting all-time highs-could precede sustained gains .

The expiry's impact on market dynamics is expected to stabilize by the weekend as traders adjust to new positions. While the event could set the tone for crypto markets heading into the final quarter of 2025, conditions remain contingent on institutional flows and macroeconomic updates, particularly from the U.S. Federal Reserve and Mag-7 earnings .

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Source: [1] Record Bitcoin & Ethereum Options Expiry Sparks Volatility (https://beincrypto.com/record-21-billion-bitcoin-ethereum-options-expiry/)

[2] Bitcoin, Ether News: Massive $14.6B BTC and ETH Options Expire Friday (https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2025/08/26/massive-usd14-6b-btc-and-eth-options-expiry-shows-bias-for-bitcoin-protection)

[3] Bitcoin $140K Odds at 50% for October: Economist (https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-50-percent-odds-140k-october-economist-simulations)

[4] Economist Timothy Peterson puts Bitcoin price forecast at $140K by end of this month (https://coinjournal.net/news/economist-timothy-peterson-puts-bitcoin-price-forecast-at-140000-by-end-of-this-month/)

[5] Bitcoin Still on Track for $140K This Year, But 2026 Will Be Painful... (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bitcoin-still-track-140k-2026-064245735.html)

[6] Massive $17 Billion BTC and ETH Options Expire Today in 2025's Largest Event (https://cryptonews.com/news/massive-17-billion-btc-and-eth-options-expire-today-in-2025-largest-event-rally-or-crash/)

[7] Bitcoin Price Targets $140K as Options Expiry Fuels Bullish Outlook (https://themarketperiodical.com/2025/09/12/bitcoin-price-targets-140k-as-options-expiry-fuels-bullish-outlook/)

[8] Bitcoin to $140K by Month End? Bullish Hopes Remain Even as Tuesday Drop Sends ETH, XRP, SOL Down 5% (https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2025/10/08/bitcoin-to-usd140k-by-month-end-bullish-hopes-remain-even-as-tuesday-drop-sends-eth-xrp-sol-down-5)