Bitcoin News Today: Bull Market Dips or Doom? Crypto's Halvening and Altcoin Rivalry Test Investor Nerve

The crypto market is at a pivotal juncture as a trader asserts there is a "very high chance" the current phase marks the beginning of a new bull market. This claim comes amid a volatile trading environment shaped by Bitcoin's halvening cycle, geopolitical tensions, and shifting institutional sentiment. Analysts are divided on whether recent price corrections signal the end of the 2025 bull run or merely a temporary dip in a broader upward trend.

Bitcoin's price history, as outlined by Forbes contributor James Van Straten , suggests a predictable boom-bust cycle driven by the halvening event, which reduces the supply of new BTC by half. This mechanism has historically triggered price surges followed by sharp corrections. However, external factors like U.S. policy shifts and geopolitical risks-such as proposed EU tariffs under Donald Trump's administration-have added complexity to the market's trajectory . CoinGape notes that while Trump's 50% tariff proposal on EU goods has spooked investors, experts argue the bull market remains intact, with Bitcoin potentially targeting $200,000 by year-end .

The recent market downturn, which erased over $19 billion in leveraged positions, has intensified debates about the bull market's longevity. Mudrex's analysis highlights that historical bull cycles typically last 12–18 months, and the current cycle began in late 2023 . Despite short-term jitters, on-chain data shows long-term holders are accumulating BTC, and institutional interest-evidenced by BlackRock's recent BTC purchases-suggests confidence in a recovery . However, the U.S. Treasury's proposed regulations on stablecoin KYC requirements and China's retaliatory trade measures could introduce further volatility .

Bitcoin's dominance in the crypto market has dipped to 58%, raising questions about the potential for an "altcoin season." Trader Tardigrade's analysis of the TOTAL3 index-a metric tracking altcoins excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum-reveals a textbook "Cup & Handle" pattern, signaling a possible surge in altcoin market capitalization to $4.37 trillion . Solana (SOL), Dogecoin (DOGE), and Ethereum (ETH) are seen as key beneficiaries, with SOL potentially rising to $1,000 if ecosystem growth continues . Conversely, some analysts, like Michaël van de Poppe, argue that Bitcoin's dominance remains strong, with the Altcoin Season Index hovering below 25, far from the 75 threshold needed for a true altcoin boom .

Market sentiment, as measured by the Fear & Greed Index, has oscillated between "Fear" and "Greed" in recent weeks. The index currently reads 35, reflecting heightened anxiety amid the Trump-EU trade war and broader macroeconomic uncertainties . However, historical patterns suggest that extreme fear often precedes buying opportunities. For instance, the market rebounded after the 2024 "Liberation Day" tariffs, with Bitcoin hitting record highs in May 2025 . Analysts note that while short-term volatility is inevitable, factors like the U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve proposal and potential ETF approvals for altcoins could catalyze a sustained rally .

The path forward remains uncertain, but key catalysts could tip the scales. The upcoming Bitcoin halvening in 2028 is expected to drive another major bull run, though shorter-term gains may materialize if demand outpaces supply. Institutional adoption, regulatory clarity, and macroeconomic trends-such as interest rate cuts or a shift in U.S. policy-will play critical roles. As Van Straten succinctly puts it, "Risk assets only appreciate as risk decreases. Look out below" .

Source: [1] This is the Full Title of the First News Article (https://www.forbes.com/sites/digital-assets/2025/03/12/bitcoin-crash-2025-the-crypto-cycle-repeats-a-road-map/)

[2] This is the Full Title of the Second News Article (https://coingape.com/trending/crypto-crash-is-the-bull-market-over/)

[3] Full Title of the Third Source Used (https://mudrex.com/learn/when-will-crypto-go-up-again-is-the-2025-crypto-bull-run-over/)

[6] Full Title of the Sixth Source Used (https://coinpedia.org/news/altcoin-season-2025-will-be-bigger-than-2021-heres-why/)

[9] Full Title of the Ninth Source Used (https://beincrypto.com/altcoin-season-delayed-bitcoin-dominates/)

[12] Full Title of the Twelfth Source Used (https://www.banklesstimes.com/articles/2025/10/11/crypto-fear-and-greed-and-altcoin-season-index-slumps-as-losses-mount/)