Bitcoin News Today: BTC at Crossroads: $116K Battle Could Unlock $140K or Trigger Deep Correction

Bitcoin's price action around the $116,000 level has intensified scrutiny from analysts and traders, with technical indicators and market dynamics suggesting a critical juncture for the cryptocurrency. After a recent pullback, Bitcoin (BTC) is consolidating within a range defined by support at $112,500 and resistance at $119,954, according to Ecoinimist. The $116K threshold has emerged as a focal point, with Bitfinex analysts noting it remains a key resistance until BTC reclaims it decisively. Meanwhile, on-chain data reveals 32,000 dormant BTC positions, signaling potential liquidity shifts as market participants gauge the next move.

Technical indicators underscore a tug-of-war between bulls and bears. The relative strength index (RSI) has rebounded from oversold territory but lacks sustained momentum above neutral levels, while the MACD remains in negative territory, reflecting lingering selling pressure. Order book analysis highlights bid walls near $115,563 and $115,600, which could stabilize prices if these levels hold. Conversely, a breakdown below $112,546 could expose BTC to deeper retracements toward $105,681, according to Ecoinimist. CoinDesk's Omkar Godbole, however, cautions that a clean breakout above the expanding triangle's upper boundary on the daily chart could propel BTC toward $135,000–$140,000, though a failure to hold the ascending trendline might trigger a corrective phase.

Market liquidity is also influenced by Bitcoin ETF inflows, which have surged to unprecedented levels. BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) led the charge with a $405.5 million net inflow on October 1, pushing its total assets under management to $90.7 billion and securing its place among the top 20 ETFs by assetstitle8^[8]. The ETF's performance closely mirrors Bitcoin's price, with its share price hitting a 52-week high of $69.68 as BTC approached $125,000. These inflows, coupled with the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024, have driven institutional adoption and tightened spreads, making BTC more accessible to traditional investors. Coinpedia notes that accumulator addresses have netted 320,000 BTC in 2025, reinforcing long-term holder confidence and providing a safety net for potential dips.

Broader macroeconomic factors further complicate the outlook. The U.S. Federal Reserve's September rate cut and expectations of further easing have softened the dollar, traditionally beneficial for risk assets like Bitcoin. However, the dollar index (DXY) and Treasury yields remain resilient, with the 10-year yield climbing to 4.16% after the Fed's 25-basis-point cut. Goldman Sachs has warned that Japan's bond market volatility could spill into U.S. Treasuries, adding uncertainty. Meanwhile, the MOVE index-a measure of Treasury volatility-has fallen to its lowest since December 2021, suggesting easing financial conditions for risk assetstitle1^[1].

Analysts remain divided on Bitcoin's near-term trajectory. While some, like Fundstrat's Tom Lee, anticipate a "monster move" post-Fed cut, others, including Ted from X, predict a potential drop to $104,000 or $92,000 before a rebound. The fourth quarter is historically bullish for Bitcoin, with an average return of 85.42% since 2013, and Bitfinex highlights strong long-term holder confidence despite recent short-term selling. CoinDesk's Godbole emphasizes that a breakout above $119K could reignite talk of a new all-time high, while a failure to reclaim $116K might trigger a retest of lower support levels.

As the market navigates these dynamics, Bitcoin's price remains in a delicate balance between technical resistance, macroeconomic shifts, and institutional demand. With ETF inflows continuing to fuel liquidity and the Fed's policy trajectory under scrutiny, the next directional move could set the tone for the coming weeks. Traders are closely monitoring the $116K–$117K range, where dormant BTC positions and order book pressure may dictate whether the current consolidation leads to a sustained rally or a deeper correction.