Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin's Four-Year Cycle Weakening as Institutional Adoption and ETFs Reshape Market

Bitcoin’s long-standing four-year price cycle, once a cornerstone of market prediction, is showing signs of weakening as institutional adoption and regulatory clarity reshape the cryptocurrency landscape, according to insights from industry leaders. Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise, highlighted in a July 25 X post that the maturing crypto market is no longer bound by historical patterns tied to Bitcoin halvings, macroeconomic pressures, or speculative retail-driven dynamics [1]. Instead, factors such as institutional investment, evolving regulatory frameworks, and the emergence of spot Bitcoin ETFs are driving a more stable, long-term trajectory for the asset.

Hougan noted that Bitcoin’s halving events—historically seen as catalysts for supply shocks and bullish trends—have lost their prior influence. This shift is attributed to broader macroeconomic changes, including reduced sensitivity to interest rate fluctuations, and the introduction of clearer regulatory structures that have mitigated extreme volatility. The CIO emphasized that institutional investors, including pension funds and corporate treasuries, are now dominant market participants, replacing the speculative retail-driven cycles of the past. This transition, he argued, signals a move toward consistent capital inflows and sustained growth rather than boom-and-bust cycles [1].

CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju echoed this sentiment, revising earlier bearish forecasts rooted in the old four-year model. Despite predicting a peak near $80,000 in April, Bitcoin’s price surged past $123,000 by July, underscoring the model’s limitations. Ju attributed this discrepancy to the collapse of traditional accumulation-distribution dynamics, where large holders previously sold to retail buyers. Instead, institutional demand and corporate treasury allocations are now shaping market behavior, reducing speculative activity and stabilizing price action [1].

The structural shifts are also reflected in the adoption of spot Bitcoin ETFs, which Hougan expects to drive sustained investment over the next decade. These products, launched in 2024, are opening doors for traditional financial institutions to integrate crypto into their offerings, while legislative developments like the Genius Act are accelerating institutional participation. Hougan projected that 2026 will mark a year of strong performance for Bitcoin, driven by long-term adoption trends rather than cyclical patterns [1].

Analysts stress that while short-term volatility remains possible, the market’s evolution toward institutional-grade infrastructure and regulatory clarity is reshaping Bitcoin’s narrative. This transition aligns with broader trends in traditional finance, where crypto is increasingly treated as a strategic asset class rather than a speculative gamble.

Source: [1] [Bitcoin’s four-year cycle loses grip as maturing market reshapes dynamics] [https://cryptoslate.com/bitcoins-four-year-cycle-loses-grip-as-maturing-market-reshapes-dynamics/]