Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin's Four-Year Cycle Obsolete: Hayes Credits Liquidity Over Halving

Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and chief investment officer of Maelstrom, has declared Bitcoin's traditional four-year market cycle obsolete, arguing that fiat liquidity and global monetary policy now dictate its price trajectory. In a recent essay, Hayes emphasized that Bitcoin's historical price peaks were not driven by block-reward halvings but by surges in U.S. and Chinese liquidity, including quantitative easing, credit expansion, and regulatory shifts. "Traders counting on a 2025 top will be wrong-the pattern worked before but fails this time," he stated, citing the 2013, 2017, and 2020–2021 bull runs as examples where monetary policy, not halvings, shaped Bitcoin's cycles Coinedition^[1].

Hayes highlighted the U.S. Treasury's $2.5 trillion in liquidity injections through short-term bill issuance and the Federal Reserve's rate-cutting trajectory, with futures markets pricing in a 94% chance of a cut in October 2025. China's shift from deflation to mild easing further aligns global liquidity conditions to support Bitcoin's rally. Institutional ETF inflows have also amplified this trend, with Bitcoin ETFs accumulating 63,083 BTC in a single week, pushing the price to a record $126,199 Coindesk^[2]. K33 Research analyst Vetle Lunde noted that open interest growth and ETF inflows confirm liquidity, not supply events, as the dominant driver Yahoo Finance^[3].

The Federal Reserve's pivot to rate cuts and potential quantitative easing (QE) could further fuel Bitcoin's ascent. Hayes predicted Bitcoin could reach $250,000 by year-end if the Fed adopts a $36 trillion debt ceiling suspension and increases Treasury purchases, effectively monetizing deficits. However, market bets remain cautious, with only 9% of traders on Polymarket anticipating a $250,000 price target, compared to 60% expecting $110,000 .

Historical patterns reinforce Hayes's argument. The 2013 rally coincided with U.S. quantitative easing and Chinese infrastructure credit, while the 2017 ICO boom was tied to yuan devaluation and credit expansion. The 2020–2021 pandemic bull run followed massive U.S. liquidity injections. Today, similar dynamics persist, with U.S. and Chinese central banks favoring lower rates and easier credit to sustain growth. "Money itself now sets the cycle," Hayes concluded, urging traders to focus on liquidity rather than calendar-based expectations Coinedition^[1].

Institutional adoption is accelerating, with U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recording $3.7 billion in inflows in early October 2025, including a record $1.18 billion single-day influx. BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) alone saw $967 million in new capital, pushing its assets under management toward $100 billion . Analysts like Bitwise's Matt Hougan projected Q4 ETF inflows to surpass $36 billion, driven by expanded institutional access and macroeconomic tailwinds such as the "debasement trade" favoring gold and Bitcoin amid currency devaluation .

Hayes's thesis aligns with broader market sentiment. CoinDesk and K33 Research both noted that Bitcoin's four-year cycle is obsolete, with liquidity-driven structural regimes now defining its market behavior. As global monetary conditions remain accommodative, Bitcoin's price is expected to continue rising, potentially extending the bull run into 2026 Coinedition^[1].