Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin Waits on Fed's Rate Verdict Amid Short-Seller Stakes

Bitcoin's price trajectory remains under intense scrutiny as market participants brace for potential volatility, with recent data suggesting a risk of renewed declines amid aggressive positioning by short-sellers and shifting macroeconomic expectations. On October 3, 2025, Bitcoin (BTC) traded near $111,480, having recently tested the $120,000 psychological level but consolidating in a tighter range. Analysts highlight a growing divergence in derivatives markets, with open interest above $32 billion and basis rates approaching 8%, signaling a concentration of long exposure that could amplify short-term fluctuations.

Short-sellers have intensified their bets, with Bitcoin futures funding rates spiking to 25% on Deribit, compared to more neutral rates on other exchanges. This imbalance has raised concerns about a potential short squeeze, particularly if BTC breaks above key resistance levels. Coinglass data revealed $380 million in 24-hour liquidations, with $121,300 identified as a critical threshold for further upward momentum. Conversely, bearish sentiment persists, as short positions have grown in anticipation of a correction. Thomas Chen of Function warned that deviations from Federal Reserve expectations-such as a delayed rate cut-could trigger a "violent repricing" of crypto assets.

Macroeconomic factors remain pivotal. The U.S. Federal Reserve's September meeting, informed by upcoming non-farm payrolls and CPI data, is widely expected to deliver a 25-basis-point rate cut, with markets pricing a 90% probability. Matt Mena of 21Shares noted that easing monetary policy could propel Bitcoin toward $150,000, but cautioned that a "no-cut" scenario would likely ignite a broad correction across crypto markets. The recent 12% drop from Bitcoin's August peak to $109,000 underscores the fragility of the current narrative, as traders grapple with divergent macroeconomic signals.

Altcoin markets have mirrored Bitcoin's mixed performance. While Ethereum (ETH), Solana (SOL), and smaller-cap tokens like ETHFI and CAKE surged amid capital rotation, others such as MYX plummeted 43% due to leveraged unwinds. Bitcoin dominance saw a temporary spike, reflecting a flight to safety as investors reassessed risk profiles. Analysts anticipate renewed altcoin activity if Bitcoin stabilizes, with Solana and Injective (INJ) positioned to benefit from liquidity shifts.

The market's cautious tone is further reinforced by neutral positioning in options trading. Put-call volumes showed a slight tilt toward calls at 52.25%, down from previous days, while 1-week 25-delta skews flattened to 0.33%, indicating balanced volatility expectations. This moderation suggests a recalibration of risk appetite following earlier bullish extremes.

Source: [1] Forbes (https://www.forbes.com/sites/digital-assets/2025/08/30/violent-repricing-bitcoin-suddenly-plunges-as-cascade-price-crash-fed-warning-hits-ethereum-xrp-and-crypto/) [2] Coindesk (https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2025/10/03/crypto-markets-today-btc-pressures-usd120k-as-traders-brace-for-potential-short-squeeze) [3] Coinedition (https://coinedition.com/bitcoin-on-short-squeeze-watch-potential-1-billion-liquidations-in-play/)