Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin's Volatility Tests Bullish Resolve as Fed Uncertainty Looms

Bitcoin’s recent surge beyond $124,000 has given way to a sharp pullback, with the world’s largest cryptocurrency trading around $115,000 as of early August 2025, marking a roughly 7% decline from its peak. The correction follows a period of aggressive price gains fueled by expectations of U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts and significant buying from corporate treasuries. Over the past month, Bitcoin has gained 23% year to date. However, the recent volatility has triggered substantial liquidation events across the crypto market, with CoinGlass reporting over $1.7 billion in long futures positions unwound since late last week. This deleveraging has weighed heavily on momentum, with traders scrambling to offload positions amid uncertainty about the Fed’s next move.

Ethereum (ETH-USD), the second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, has also seen a drop, retreating to around $4,350 after climbing close to its all-time high of nearly $4,900. The broader crypto market is showing signs of profit-taking and risk-off behavior as investors lock in gains following a recent surge in optimism around institutional adoption and macroeconomic conditions. Samer Hasn, senior market analyst at XS.com, attributes the pullback to “an erosion of bullish momentum” and noted the deleveraging phase following the recent highs as a key factor in the current correction [1].

The sell-off is occurring amid broader macroeconomic uncertainty, particularly around the Federal Reserve’s policy direction. A hotter-than-expected July wholesale inflation report has dampened hopes of a 0.5% rate cut in September, sending ripples through risk assets, including crypto. The uncertainty has led to increased volatility in the market, with traders anticipating guidance from Fed Chair Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium later in the week. Analysts suggest that a "wait-and-see" stance from Powell could limit Bitcoin’s upside in the near term, with the cryptocurrency likely to consolidate within the $115,000–$120,000 range. A breakdown below $112,000 could trigger further downward pressure, while a retest of $118,000–$120,000 remains a potential target for bullish traders [2].

Market structure analysis also highlights growing concerns among traders. Bitcoin’s Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio currently stands at 21%, indicating that most investors are holding profitable positions, which increases the likelihood of selling as uncertainty grows. Additionally, technical indicators show weakening momentum, with Bitcoin’s RSI hitting oversold levels for the first time in over a month. This suggests that the recent pullback may not be a structural shift but rather a period of consolidation. Glassnode data shows that Bitcoin has completed its third major wave of profit-taking in the current bull cycle, a pattern often associated with temporary pauses before renewed upward movement [3].

Despite the near-term volatility, institutional demand and whale accumulation continue to support a longer-term bullish case. Large holders have added over 218,000 BTC since March, indicating continued confidence in the asset class. Moreover, ETF inflows for Bitcoin and Ethereum have remained robust, with crypto ETFs logging over $547 million in inflows for Bitcoin and $2.9 billion for Ethereum during the week ending August 16 [2]. Analysts from JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, and Cathie Wood’s ARK Invest have maintained their long-term price forecasts in the range of $130,000 to $400,000 by the end of 2025 and 2026, depending on macroeconomic and regulatory developments [3].

Looking ahead, the coming weeks will be pivotal for Bitcoin as it navigates the crossroads of technical support, market sentiment, and macroeconomic signals. The $112,000 level is now a critical barrier for bulls, and any further breakdown could open the door to a deeper correction. Conversely, a successful rebound above $116,000 could reignite bullish momentum and push Bitcoin toward testing its recent highs once more. Institutional participation, Fed policy clarity, and broader market conditions will remain key variables in shaping Bitcoin’s next move.

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[1] Bitcoin, ethereum slip as crypto markets pull back after hitting ... (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bitcoin-ethereum-slip-as-crypto-markets-pull-back-after-hitting-2025-highs-155818704.html)

[2] Bitcoin sinks to $115000 after hitting its newest record, as ... (https://www.cnbc.com/2025/08/18/crypto-market-today.html)

[3] Bitcoin Price Is Going Down as Market Stress Tests Bulls ... (https://www.financemagnates.com/trending/bitcoin-price-is-going-down-as-market-stress-tests-bulls-before-jackson-hole/)