Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin's Valuation Paradox: Traditional Models vs. Macroeconomics and Speculation

Bitcoin's traditional valuation metrics, including the Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model, are increasingly under scrutiny as market dynamics shift. Recent data and expert analysis suggest that factors beyond scarcity—such as macroeconomic conditions, institutional behavior, and speculative trading—are reshaping Bitcoin's price trajectory.

Binance's Bitcoin outflow data reveals a 30-day moving average that has been strongly negative, indicating investors are pulling holdings from exchanges and accumulating, according to a Cryptonews report. However, that same report also highlights a $5.56 billion inflow of whale money into the exchange, creating a contradiction in distribution theories. Meanwhile, the piece notes Bitcoin's MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) ratio has dipped below its 365-day average—a pattern previously observed at market bottoms in 2021, 2022, and 2024.

Technical analysis also points to a Wyckoff reaccumulation phase, with a Selling Climax at $106,000, a Spring (rebound) to $102,000, and consolidation in the current Test phase. This suggests Bitcoin may be nearing a breakout, though such patterns require confirmation.

Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs have returned to outflows, deepening concerns about market weakness, according to a crypto.news report. On October 22, Bitcoin ETFs recorded $101.3 million in redemptions, reversing a $477 million inflow the prior day, while Ethereum ETFs lost $18.8 million. Total trading volumes dropped to $6.58 billion, signaling weaker demand. BlackRock's IBIT managed inflows, but outflows from Fidelity's FBTC and Grayscale's GBTC dominated, underscoring broad investor hesitation.

VALR CEO Farzam Ehsani argues that Bitcoin's role as a safe-haven asset is reemerging amid gold's $2.5 trillion market correction, which he terms a "natural cooling phase." He projects Bitcoin could reach $130,000–$132,000 if macroeconomic conditions stabilize, such as a soft U.S. CPI print or trade détente. Ehsani also highlighted that a 3–4% capital rotation from gold to Bitcoin could push BTC above $240,000, citing Bitwise's analysis.

Meanwhile, Jesse Myers of Onramp Bitcoin drew parallels between current global M2 money supply growth and the 2020 pandemic-driven boom, suggesting Bitcoin could replicate its sixfold rally if the trend continues, as discussed in a Cointelegraph piece. With M2 expanding at a $137 trillion annual rate, Myers argues BTC's price action is lagging but could surge toward $500,000 by 2026.

Unconventional fiscal proposals, such as Trump's rumored plan to convert U.S. gold reserves into Bitcoin, have sparked debate. Cynthia Lummis (R-Wyo.) cited studies by Michael Saylor and Arthur Laffer, arguing that acquiring 5% of Bitcoin's supply could generate exponential returns and reduce the national debt, according to a Benzinga article. However, critics warn such a move risks destabilizing global markets by replacing a stable reserve asset with a volatile one.

The Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow model's limitations are evident as market forces evolve. While traditional scarcity-driven metrics remain relevant, macroeconomic shifts, institutional flows, and speculative trading are now dominant drivers. As ETF outflows persist and political gambles emerge, Bitcoin's path forward hinges on balancing these competing forces—a challenge that may redefine its role in global finance.