Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin's Technical Bull Case Meets Structural Bear Risks

Bitcoin's price trajectory has drawn renewed attention as analysts suggest the cryptocurrency is entering a favorable zone for a rebound. Recent data indicates that Bitcoin (BTC) is approaching key technical indicators historically associated with market reversals, with a potential recovery target of $96,000. The Puell Multiple, a metric tracking miners' daily revenue relative to annual averages, has fallen to 0.86, signaling undervaluation and aligning with past rebounds, including a 50% rally following a similar dip in April 2025 according to analysis. Simultaneously, the MVRV Z-Score—a measure of Bitcoin's market value versus realized value—has dropped to a two-year low of 1.13, nearing levels that preceded a significant 80% price surge in late 2023.

On-chain and derivatives data further reinforce the case for a potential reversal. The Bitcoin Bull-Bear Structure Index, which had been in negative territory since November 11, improved to -20%, reflecting reduced bearish momentum. Meanwhile, the Bitcoin Futures Flow Index remains below the neutral-bullish threshold of 45–55, suggesting lingering caution but a decelerating downtrend according to data. Analysts highlight a $11,000 gap between the current spot price and the fair-value line at $99,000, framing $96,000–$99,000 as a critical recovery window.

However, structural challenges persist. According to market analysis, the exclusion of crypto treasury companies from major indexes like MSCI, set for January 2026, could trigger automatic sell-offs from funds mandated to follow index criteria, potentially exacerbating downward pressure on Bitcoin. Additionally, ETF outflows have weakened liquidity, with the Sharpe Ratio near zero and institutional flows trending negative. These factors underscore the fragility of the current market environment, even as technical indicators suggest a potential rebound.

Market observers remain divided on the timing and sustainability of any upswing. While some argue that Bitcoin's 30% drawdown from its all-time high of $126,000 represents a buying opportunity, others caution that a "dead cat bounce" could precede further declines. The path forward hinges on macroeconomic developments, including the Federal Reserve's December interest rate decision and the stabilization of ETF flows. For now, the $84,000 support level is seen as a critical threshold: a breakdown could trigger cascading liquidations toward $75,000 or below according to analysis.