Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin's Survival Hinges on Fed Policy, $84K Support Amid ETF Exodus

Bitcoin's recent price action and liquidity dynamics have sparked renewed debate over its role in the global financial system, with analysts highlighting diverging signals between traditional markets and digital assets. A strong negative correlation between Bitcoin and USDt activity has resurfaced, as noted by blockchain analytics firm Glassnode, which reported that net outflows of USDT from exchanges coincided with BTC price increases over the past two years. This pattern, observed during peak bullish phases, suggests that stablecoin movements may serve as a liquidity proxy for Bitcoin, with investors locking in profits amid market euphoria.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin's 36% drawdown from its October record high of $126,199 has raised questions about the sustainability of its current valuation. Despite mixed flows in spot ETFs and a Thanksgiving-driven market lull, institutional sentiment remains fragmented. While inflows of $238 million into Bitcoin ETFs in late November signaled a short-term accumulation phase, cumulative outflows of $3.5 billion in Q4 2025 underscored broader caution. Abu Dhabi's sovereign wealth funds and Asian institutional buyers have offset some U.S. retail outflows, yet the Nasdaq's 70% outperformance over Bitcoin in recent weeks highlights a growing disconnect between equity and crypto markets.

Macroeconomic factors further complicate the outlook. The Federal Reserve's dovish pivot, with rate-cut probabilities surging to 80% ahead of its December 10 meeting, has injected optimism into risk assets. However, Bitcoin's Sharpe Ratio near zero and its high-beta exposure to equity risk sentiment suggest it remains vulnerable to policy shifts. This is evident in the asset's recent behavior, where a $1 billion drop in open interest following October's leveraged liquidation event triggered cascading sell-offs across crypto and equity markets.

New developments in the crypto ecosystem, however, offer counterpoints to the bearish narrative. Bitcoin Munari, a Solana-based project with a fixed 21 million supply cap, has entered its second presale phase at $0.22, drawing attention for its transparent distribution model. Separately, Avail's Nexus Mainnet launch aims to unify liquidity across Ethereum, Solana, and EVMs, potentially addressing fragmentation that has historically hindered capital efficiency. These innovations, alongside Bybit Alpha's integrated liquidity farm, reflect a broader push to enhance accessibility and yield opportunities in decentralized finance.

Looking ahead, the path for Bitcoin hinges on three key variables: the Fed's December rate decision, stabilization of ETF flows, and sustained price support above $84,000. While on-chain data indicates whale accumulation and oversold technical conditions, institutional redemptions and elevated liquidation risks continue to weigh on momentum. Analysts caution that a failure to defend critical support levels could trigger further capitulation, yet historical precedents suggest prolonged low-Sharpe periods often precede cyclical rebounds.