Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin Rises on Thin Spot Volume and Derivatives Surge

Bitcoin's recent rebound has drawn attention to its sustainability, as market participants remain cautious about its staying power. Over the past week, the cryptocurrency surged from below $114,000 to nearly $121,000, a recovery described by Glassnode as a shift from "seller exhaustion to a strong rebound near recent all-time highs" [1]. However, the rally appears to have been driven more by positioning shifts among traders than by robust spot market participation [1].

According to Glassnode data, spot trading volumes fell by 22% to $5.7 billion, approaching statistical low levels, indicating a lack of broad-based buying pressure [1]. The Spot Cumulative Volume Delta turned 94% in favor of buying, but this remains a narrow trend and does not reflect widespread demand across the market [1]. This suggests that while the recovery is encouraging, it lacks the depth to confirm a long-term bullish trend.

Derivatives activity, on the other hand, saw a resurgence. Glassnode reported an 88% jump in Perpetual Cumulative Volume Delta, with elevated funding rates and a 6.7% increase in options open interest to $42.4 billion [1]. However, volatility pricing collapsed by nearly a third, signaling a potential complacency among traders, which has historically preceded sharp market moves [1]. This dynamic highlights the delicate balance between optimism and caution in the current environment.

U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs provided some relief, with outflows halving to $311 million from $686 million the previous week [1]. Still, ETF trade volume dropped by 27.7% to $13.7 billion, keeping overall activity near its low band. This continued lack of institutional or retail interest could limit the strength of the rebound.

QCP Capital, a Singapore-based trading firm, attributed the recent surge — which briefly pushed Bitcoin above $122,000 — to thin order books and a broader risk-on shift in global markets [1]. The firm noted that the crypto rebound aligned with a similar rise in U.S. equities and growing expectations of a September Federal Reserve rate cut. This macro-driven optimism adds a layer of complexity to Bitcoin’s near-term outlook, as the market remains sensitive to broader economic signals.

On-chain activity showed some improvement, with active addresses rising 8.4% to 793,000 and fee volume increasing by 10% [1]. However, Glassnode warned that the high level of profitability in the market — 94.1% of supply is in profit — could quickly shift into selling pressure if sentiment turns negative [1]. The realized profit-to-loss ratio climbed to 1.9, signaling that profit-taking could accelerate in the near term.

With thin liquidity, bullish derivatives positioning, and macroeconomic optimism, Bitcoin is poised for volatile movements as it approaches all-time highs. The next major test will come with Tuesday’s U.S. CPI release, which could either reinforce or undermine the current momentum. Polymarket traders expect a modest uptick in line with consensus, which would likely keep Bitcoin consolidating near current levels [1]. However, stronger-than-expected inflation readings could delay the anticipated Fed rate cut and act as a short-term headwind, while softer prints could serve as a breakout catalyst, especially if ETF flows and spot activity improve [1].

Bitcoin is currently trading at approximately $118,000 as traders position themselves ahead of the CPI release, with market participants watching closely for signs of whether this rebound will consolidate or give way to renewed bearish pressure [1].

Source: [1] Asia Morning Briefing: Bitcoin’s Thin-Liquidity Bounce Raises Questions on Staying Power (https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2025/08/12/asia-morning-briefing-bitcoin-s-thin-liquidity-bounce-raises-questions-on-staying-power)