Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin Rises on ETF Inflows, Fed Rate-Cut Odds Spur Risk-On Sentiment

The U.S. economy delivered a surprise blow to expectations with the release of the November ADP Employment Change data, which showed a loss of 32,000 private sector jobs—far below the anticipated gain of 5,000. This significant drop follows a revised 47,000 gain in October and points to a softening labor market. The weak data has bolstered expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, with the CME FedWatch tool pricing in an 87% chance of a 25-basis-point reduction.

Bitcoin (BTC-USD) is now at a critical juncture as it trades near the $93,000 level, a key short-term inflection point that could determine its near-term direction. The cryptocurrency has shown signs of stabilization after a sharp sell-off and a brief rebound driven by a resurgence in spot Bitcoin ETF inflows. These funds have injected $240 million in new capital, ending a six-day losing streak and reversing November's outflows.

The ADP report has also had a direct impact on the U.S. Dollar (USD), which has seen a sell-off against major currencies. The USD Index fell to its lowest level since late October, with the Japanese Yen (JPY) gaining ground amid diverging monetary policy expectations between the Bank of Japan and the Federal Reserve. The Yen's strength is further reinforced by a potential rate hike in Japan, which could narrow the yield gap with the U.S.

Market Reactions to Weak Jobs Data

The EUR/USD pair has responded positively to the ADP data, rising 0.3% to 1.1663 ahead of the release. The pair is above the 20-day EMA at 1.1591, reinforcing a strong uptrend. Technical indicators like the RSI remain bullish at 62, and the breakout of an inverse Head and Shoulder pattern suggests further upside potential toward 1.1728.

Bitcoin ETF inflows have also provided a counterbalance to the broader market volatility. The iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) led the charge with $120 million in new inflows, pushing its total capital to over $62 billion. This momentum has been fueled by structural shifts in institutional demand and a regulatory environment that has become more accommodating. Vanguard's recent policy reversal, allowing millions of clients access to Bitcoin ETFs, has further amplified inflows.

Institutional Adoption and Technical Outlook

The surge in ETF inflows has coincided with a broader institutional reallocation into digital assets. Exchange-held Bitcoin balances have declined month-over-month, while ETF-backed reserves have grown. This shift highlights a growing preference for regulated, liquid exposure over direct exchange holdings. Analysts note that Bitcoin's position above $90,000 is being supported by institutional buying, reduced volatility, and improving open interest in derivatives markets.

Technically, Bitcoin faces immediate resistance at $95,400, where Fibonacci levels align with the 50-day SMA. A breakout above this level could pave the way for a move toward $98,000–$102,000 in the near term. If BTC-USD consolidates below $93,000, it could remain in a range-bound trend until sentiment shifts or capital inflows stabilize. RSI has improved to 52.8, indicating a potential recovery in momentum.

What This Means for Investors

Investors are closely watching the interplay between labor market data and central bank policy. The ADP report has reinforced the narrative of a Fed that is becoming increasingly dovish, with rate cuts expected to continue in the near future. This environment is favorable for risk assets, including Bitcoin, which benefits from lower interest rates and a weaker USD. Analysts at Bitunix note that BTC-$93k is a critical inflection point, where a sustained breakout could confirm a renewed bullish trend.

The ETF-driven demand for Bitcoin has also sparked renewed confidence among institutional investors. Vanguard and Bank of America's recent policy changes are expected to unlock hundreds of billions in new capital into regulated crypto vehicles. This shift is not only boosting liquidity but also reinforcing Bitcoin's role as a diversified store of value in institutional portfolios.