Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin's Resilient Holders Keep Price Above Key Support Amid Turbulence

Bitcoin’s realized capitalization has shown a notable increase despite a decline in its market price to approximately $112,000, drawing attention from analysts and on-chain observers. The realized cap, which represents the total value of all Bitcoins based on their last transacted price, is considered a more stable indicator of market sentiment compared to the volatile spot price. Recent on-chain data from platforms like Glassnode indicate that the realized cap is growing, albeit at a slower rate compared to previous all-time highs seen in early 2025 [3]. This suggests that while long-term holders remain relatively resilient, new capital inflows appear to be less aggressive, contributing to the recent price correction.

The divergence between the realized price and the current market price has also widened, with the realized price reflecting the average last transacted value of all circulating Bitcoins. During periods of significant price movements, this metric can act as a gauge of investor behavior, particularly in identifying whether the price is being supported by long-term holders or is at risk of further declines. For instance, when the realized price is significantly lower than the market price, it typically indicates that a large number of holders acquired their coins at lower levels and are unwilling to sell at current prices, signaling confidence in Bitcoin’s future value [2].

Analysts are closely monitoring the short-term holder realized price (STH RP), a metric that tracks the average price paid by investors who moved their coins within the last 155 days. This metric currently stands near $108,600 and has historically served as a key support level during periods of market stress. The recent test of this level coincided with broader market turbulence, including geopolitical developments such as President Trump’s new tariff policies. However, Bitcoin has held above this threshold, indicating that near-term investors continue to see value in the asset despite the recent drawdown [3].

From a technical perspective, the price action has become increasingly ambiguous. Bitcoin recently broke through a long-term ascending trendline established since the April 2025 lows around $75,000. A continued decline could see prices retesting key psychological and technical levels such as $98,200 and the $75,000 handle. On shorter timeframes, the four-hour chart shows a descending trendline forming, with a recent bounce back after a test of the daily low. A break below $112,353 could expose further vulnerability to the STH RP level [3]. These developments underscore the mixed signals currently in the market, where fundamental strength contrasts with bearish technical indicators.

Client sentiment data further complicate the outlook, with OANDA reporting that 98% of traders are net-long on Bitcoin. This overwhelming bullish positioning often signals a potential market reversal, as it indicates an overextended position in one direction. In such environments, contrarian traders often look for signs of a deeper pullback, particularly if key levels like the STH RP are broken. While the long-term narrative for Bitcoin remains intact—supported by ongoing inflows into crypto funds and the broader adoption of digital assets—immediate volatility remains a concern [3]. Investors are advised to closely monitor both on-chain metrics and technical levels to gauge the next potential move in the market.

Source: [1] Why Bitcoin's realized cap spiked as price fell to $112k (https://cryptoslate.com/insights/why-bitcoins-realized-cap-spiked-as-price-fell-to-122k/) [2] Bitcoin Realized Price Chart (https://newhedge.io/bitcoin/realized-price) [3] Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Price Outlook: Mixed Signals as Bearish Potential Grows – 108600 May Hold the Key (https://www.marketpulse.com/markets/bitcoin-btcusd-price-outlook-mixed-signals-as-bearish-potential-grows-108600-may-hold-the-key/)