Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin Rebounds 20% After CPI Data Sparked Dip

Bitcoin experienced a rebound after a dip triggered by the release of the June U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, which showed inflation climbing for the second consecutive month. The cryptocurrency managed to hold the $115,000 support level, trimming earlier losses and regaining momentum. This recovery was mirrored in the broader crypto market, with the total market capitalization climbing back above $3.8 trillion and reaching an intraday high of $3.838 trillion. However, sentiment turned cautious amid renewed macroeconomic uncertainty, as the Crypto Fear & Greed Index slipped three points to 70, though it remained in the “Greed” zone.

Altcoin markets also regained momentum alongside Bitcoin, with several altcoins leading the recovery. Ethereum Name Service (ENS), Bonk (BONK), and SPX6900 (SPX) showed the best performance among the top 100 altcoins, each netting gains around 20%. ENS, a core part of the Ethereum ecosystem, benefited from Ethereum’s rally over the past week, climbing to a five-month high of $27.33 before stabilizing at $26.70. Bonk’s rally was sparked by news that Grayscale Investments had added BONK to its expanded institutional monitoring list, indicating potential inclusion in future investment products. SPX6900 extended its rally after breaking out of a bullish flag pattern, with momentum further boosted by softer-than-expected U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) data, which revived risk appetite across speculative assets.

The recent dip in Bitcoin followed the release of the June U.S. CPI data, which showed headline inflation rising to 2.7% year-over-year, the highest since February, while core inflation increased to 2.9%, just below expectations. The monthly rise in CPI was 0.3%, the steepest since January, reinforcing concerns that inflation remains persistent, particularly in key categories such as food and transportation. This data tempered market expectations of a near-term shift in U.S. Federal Reserve policy, although the lower-than-expected core CPI figure offered some relief. Rising headline inflation dampened hopes of a dovish outcome at the upcoming July Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. As of now, there is a 54.3% probability of a rate cut in September, leaving markets in a wait-and-see mode ahead of the U.S. PPI report due later this week.

Compounding the pressure were concerns over potential trade escalation between the US and Russia. Washington’s threat to impose 100% tariffs unless the Ukraine conflict is resolved within 50 days has added another layer of uncertainty, slowing the pace of the recent crypto rally. Profit-taking further weighed on prices as investors holding Bitcoin for over five months accounted for 56% of realized profits during the downturn, collectively offloading $1.96 billion. Miners also joined in, with the Miners’ Position Index (MPI) rising above 2.7, signaling an uptick in Bitcoin transfers from miners to exchanges. Historically, such movements often precede short-term corrections, as miners look to lock in gains after strong price rallies. However, analysts note that this MPI level remains far below extremes seen during past market tops, suggesting the current trend is consistent with a typical bull cycle, where brief consolidations or pullbacks are followed by renewed upward momentum.

Despite the temporary pressure, Bitcoin’s defense of the $115,000 level has revived bullish sentiment. With the June PPI data now released, showing wholesale inflation remained flat, markets are shifting focus to upcoming Fed guidance, as traders watch whether Bitcoin can regain strength and attempt another breakout above $120,000. Despite hitting new all-time highs earlier this week, analysts say Bitcoin is not yet in overheated territory. According to CryptoQuant’s Axel Adler Jr., the market has not triggered a “Peak Signal”, a metric that typically appears when Bitcoin reaches major tops. The signal, based on normalized price models and coin destruction metrics, remains absent, suggesting the current cycle may still have upside potential. Supporting this view, analyst and CryptoQuant contributor Crypto Dan pointed to Bitcoin’s Realized Cap-UTXO Age Bands, which also show no signs of excessive market froth. These metrics track the realized value of Bitcoin across different age cohorts and currently reflect a healthy distribution, not one typically seen during overheated conditions.

Analysts are also analyzing cost-basis levels of short-term holders to identify potential inflection points in Bitcoin’s price trend. CryptoQuant’s Crazzyblockk recently flagged several cost-basis levels derived from the realized price model that could act as key technical zones. On the upside, $124,000 marks the STH cost basis pushed one standard deviation above average, a level historically linked to local tops and profit-taking zones. A breakout above this could open the door to the next resistance band at $136,000, the most aggressive STH threshold. This level often coincides with overbought conditions and heightened unrealized profits for recent buyers. To the downside, immediate support lies near $113,000, followed by $111,000, the average acquisition price of Bitcoin holders from the past month. The most critical level to watch is $101,000, which represents the base STH realized price. Holding above this zone is seen as a key indicator of the bullish structure remaining in the short-medium term. At the time of writing, Bitcoin was hovering just below the $120,000 mark. A decisive break above this psychological threshold could reignite bullish momentum, provided macroeconomic headwinds do not undermine market confidence. In that scenario, many analysts speculated that the next technical target for Bitcoin would likely fall near the $130,000 mark, which also aligns with the key resistance zones highlighted in short-term holder cost-basis models.