Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin MVRV 365DMA nears 2021 peak levels as cycle top looms late August

Bitcoin’s market cycle is approaching a potential inflection point as the MVRV 365-day moving average (MVRV 365DMA) nears levels historically associated with major price peaks, according to analysis from multiple sources. The indicator, which measures the ratio of Bitcoin’s market value to the average realized cost of holders over 365 days, has reached thresholds similar to those observed in 2021, suggesting a possible cycle top by late August or early September [1]. This development has intensified speculation about the cryptocurrency’s near-term trajectory, with traders monitoring whether the trend will culminate in a correction or continued bullish momentum.

The MVRV 365DMA’s current trajectory mirrors the “double-top” pattern seen during the 2021 rally, where the indicator signaled a peak before a subsequent pullback [1]. Analysts note that while the metric is not a definitive predictor of price action, its alignment with historical patterns warrants caution. The indicator’s proximity to critical thresholds on July 28, 2025, coincides with Bitcoin trading near $119,000, a level that has become a psychological focal point for investors [1]. The convergence of these signals has led some market participants to position for potential volatility, particularly as the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy and global trade dynamics remain key variables.

Macroeconomic factors have also contributed to Bitcoin’s recent momentum. A U.S.-EU trade agreement, which includes reduced tariffs on European goods and substantial investments in energy and infrastructure, has bolstered risk-on sentiment [1]. This development has reinforced Bitcoin’s rally, with the asset printing five consecutive 6-month bullish candles since January 2023. However, analysts caution that the absence of a confirmed bear market in recent cycles complicates comparisons to historical patterns, such as the sharp correction seen in mid-2022 [1]. The interplay between macroeconomic tailwinds and on-chain metrics remains central to assessing the sustainability of Bitcoin’s current rally.

Technical indicators further underscore the market’s precarious positioning. Bitcoin is consolidating near $119,000, with Bollinger Bands tightening and the price hovering above the 20-day moving average. The RSI, at approximately 61, suggests waning momentum but no immediate reversal [1]. This setup leaves the door open for a breakout toward $125,000 or a pullback to $114,000 if key support levels, such as $117,899, fail. Traders are advised to implement risk management strategies, given the dual potential for a continued ascent or a sharp correction.

For investors, the MVRV 365DMA’s approach to critical levels serves as a reminder to balance optimism with prudence. While Bitcoin’s limited supply and growing institutional adoption provide long-term bullish fundamentals, the immediate outlook remains contingent on macroeconomic developments and technical support/resistance dynamics. Derivatives markets have already seen increased activity as traders hedge against potential volatility, reflecting heightened anticipation of market shifts. The coming weeks will be pivotal in determining whether Bitcoin can overcome historical patterns or if the MVRV Ratio’s warning proves prescient [1].

Source: [1] [Bitcoin Market Cycle Could Near Peak by Late August as MVRV Indicator Approaches Key Level July 28, 2025] [https://en.coinotag.com/bitcoin-market-cycle-could-near-peak-by-late-august-as-mvrv-indicator-approaches-key-level/], [2] [Bitcoin Market Cycle Could Near Peak by Late August as MVRV Indicator Approaches Key Level July 28, 2025] [https://m.economictimes.com/crypto-news-today-live-28-jul-2025/liveblog/122939448.cms]