Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin Maintains $117K as Derivatives Open Interest Hits $44.5B, ETFs Fuel Bull Cycle

Bitcoin’s price movement and derivatives activity have sparked renewed optimism among market analysts, with the cryptocurrency maintaining a strong position near $117,000 amid a potential fourth major bull cycle. Open interest in Bitcoin derivatives has surged to a record $44.5 billion, signaling robust speculative activity and heightened market participation, particularly during recent price dips. This surge, observed on derivatives exchanges, suggests that traders are increasingly allocating capital to both long and short positions, a dynamic often associated with impending volatility. Analysts point to historical parallels, noting that Bitcoin’s current trajectory mirrors patterns from previous bull cycles in 2013, 2017, and 2021, where steady climbs were followed by explosive upward moves [1].

The cryptocurrency’s price has adhered closely to an ascending trendline, a technical indicator that some traders interpret as a sign of sustained bullish momentum. Merlijn The Trader’s analysis on X highlights that Bitcoin’s structure aligns with prior cycles, which historically saw new record highs after periods of consolidation [1]. This alignment has led to speculation that the asset could continue its upward trajectory, albeit with potential short-term corrections.

Derivatives activity has intensified further, with open interest rising even as prices declined from a July peak of $117,000 to $115,002. This inverse relationship between price and open interest is often interpreted as a sign that traders are adding short positions, a strategy typically employed during bearish phases. However, analysts like CryptoRus argue that this surge could amplify sharp price movements, as elevated open interest often precedes heightened volatility [1]. The record level of open interest underscores growing involvement from both institutional and retail participants, with major price breakouts frequently occurring when spot prices stabilize and open interest remains robust.

Institutional adoption, driven by the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in January 2025, has also reshaped market dynamics. These ETFs, managing over $154 billion in assets under management (AUM), have introduced long-term capital and reduced volatility compared to earlier cycles. For example, BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) alone holds 700,000 BTC in AUM this month, reflecting rapid institutional onboarding. Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise Asset Management, notes that traditional institutions now dominate Bitcoin’s market, replacing the retail-driven volatility of prior cycles [2].

Technical indicators further reinforce bullish sentiment. Bitcoin’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) reached 75 in mid-July, entering overbought territory—a level historically associated with extended price increases. Analyst PlanB, known for his cycle models, predicts a months-long bullish phase akin to the 2017 and 2021 rallies. His analysis suggests that current conditions—elevated open interest, institutional buying, and stable price action—mirror pre-halving dynamics, despite the recent halving event in April [4].

The recent 6% correction to $115,000 has not dented bullish positioning. While retail traders have been net sellers during the pullback, institutional buying has persisted. CryptoQuant’s data reveals that open interest at exchanges remains near all-time highs, indicating that long positions are being maintained despite price fluctuations [1]. This divergence between retail and institutional behavior highlights a maturing market where professional capital increasingly dictates price direction.

Regulatory developments have also played a role in shaping the bull cycle. The 2025 GENIUS Act, which provided clarity for crypto firms, has spurred Wall Street’s interest in digital assets. Major institutions, including JPMorgan and Fannie Mae, are reportedly exploring crypto products, signaling a shift toward mainstream adoption. However, analysts caution that regulatory risks—such as potential Treasury-led interventions—remain cyclical threats that could disrupt the current trajectory [3].

Price action analysis supports the case for a sustained bull run. The 6% pullback since July’s peak is within historical volatility norms, according to CryptoQuant’s Price Drawdown Analysis. This suggests the correction is a healthy part of the cycle rather than a bearish reversal [5]. Additionally, Bitcoin’s recovery above $117,000 has tested key Fibonacci resistance levels, reinforcing technical optimism [6].

The convergence of institutional adoption, elevated open interest, and favorable technical indicators paints a picture of a market in transition. While short-term volatility remains, structural changes driven by ETFs, regulatory clarity, and long-term capital point to a more stable and extended bull phase. As Bitcoin’s market evolves beyond its traditional four-year cycle, analysts are redefining expectations for future price movements, emphasizing endurance over explosive growth.

Sources:

[1] [Bitcoin Surges to $117K as Retail Traders Sell, Institutions...](https://www.ainvest.com/news/bitcoin-news-today-bitcoin-surges-117k-retail-traders-sell-institutions-accumulate-bull-cycle-2507/)

[2] [Crypto's 4-Year Cycle Is Over: $154B ETF Surge Signals...](https://www.fxleaders.com/news/2025/07/26/cryptos-4-year-cycle-is-over-154b-etf-surge-signals-new-market-era/)

[3] [Crypto's 4-Year Cycle Is Over: $154B ETF Surge Signals...](https://www.fxleaders.com/news/2025/07/26/cryptos-4-year-cycle-is-over-154b-etf-surge-signals-new-market-era/)

[4] [Bitcoin RSI Hits 75 as PlanB Signals Months-Long...](https://www.ainvest.com/news/bitcoin-news-today-bitcoin-rsi-hits-75-planb-signals-months-long-overbought-bull-run-2507/)

[5] [Bitcoin Pullback Remains Within Normal Volatility Range](https://www.mitrade.com/insights/news/live-news/article-3-987518-20250725)

[6] [The BTC Price Has Recovered Above...](https://www.binance.com/en/square/post/27438511996641)