Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin inches up 0.39% as market braces for consolidation or breakout

Bitcoin hovers near $118,348, having recorded a 0.39% gain in the past 24 hours. This small but notable rise has drawn increased attention from traders and analysts, who are closely watching for signs of whether the price will break out of its current range or consolidate further. Technical analyses suggest both possibilities, creating a split in market sentiment [1].

Key support levels are under scrutiny, particularly the $108,000–$112,000 range, which has historically acted as both a resistance and now a potential support zone. Analyst Lark Davis argues that this area, supported by Fibonacci retracement levels and the 20-week exponential moving average, could stabilize Bitcoin’s price in the near term. This convergence of technical indicators is seen as a strong signal by many market participants [1].

However, another perspective from Michaël van de Poppe suggests that Bitcoin may not break out at all and could instead enter a period of lateral movement. In such a scenario, the price would remain within a narrow band, which might reduce leverage in the market and lead to a more balanced trading environment. This sideways trend could also divert investor interest from Bitcoin toward altcoins, especially those with strong fundamentals and attractive returns [1].

Indeed, historical patterns show that altcoins like Ethereum have often outperformed Bitcoin during periods of Bitcoin’s consolidation. As Bitcoin remains in a holding pattern, there is potential for greater activity and volatility in the broader cryptocurrency market. This dynamic is not new, and investors have previously taken advantage of such opportunities [1].

Analysts largely agree that Bitcoin is entering a phase of correction or sideways consolidation rather than a major bearish downturn. Recent attempts to break above key resistance levels, such as $118,600, have failed, suggesting a need for further consolidation before any meaningful upward movement can occur [1].

The broader macroeconomic environment is also influencing market sentiment. Bitcoin briefly reached $124,420 in early August but soon retreated to around $117,760 amid shifting expectations about Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. A bearish double-top pattern has formed near $123,200, with a critical neckline at $112,000. The RSI and MACD indicators also show bearish divergence, reinforcing concerns about a deeper pullback [4].

Investors are closely watching the odds of a Fed rate cut, as reflected in prediction markets like Polymarket. These odds have fallen from 80% to 70% in recent days, reflecting growing concerns about stagflation—high inflation paired with weak economic growth. The latest University of Michigan inflation expectations survey shows 2026 inflation expectations rising to 4.9%, and five-to-ten-year expectations reaching 3.9%, adding to the uncertainty [4].

Despite the recent pullback, long-term optimism remains. Prediction markets suggest that traders believe Bitcoin has a 75% chance of reaching $130,000 by year-end, with more conservative estimates putting the probability at 53% for $140,000 and 37% for $150,000 [1]. Some analysts, including those at Standard Chartered, have even forecast Bitcoin reaching as high as $200,000 by the end of 2024 [2]. However, others caution that historical patterns suggest a potential correction around September, drawing comparisons to the 2021 bear market [3].

Ethereum is also showing signs of pressure, with its MVRV ratio nearing an overheated zone. This could signal an increased likelihood of a short-term pullback as investors take profits near all-time highs [5].

Bitcoin’s price remains highly sensitive to macroeconomic developments, particularly those related to U.S. monetary policy. With inflation expectations rising and economic growth showing signs of slowing, the path forward for Bitcoin remains uncertain. The coming weeks will be critical in determining whether this correction is merely a temporary setback or a sign of a broader market shift [4].

Sources:

[1] https://coinmarketcap.com/community/articles/68a24e7957d7e5373660d233/

[2] https://www.aol.com/traders-pouring-shares-bitcoin-investment-190736311.html

[3] https://thetradable.com/crypto/bitcoin-price-prediction-rally-warning-btc-could-face-september-crash-0--a

[4] https://crypto.news/bitcoin-polymarket-fed-interest-rate-cut-odds-fall/

[5] https://bitcoinist.com/ethereum-mvrv-ratio-nears-overheated-profit-taking/