Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin's 'Ice Cold' Mayer Multiple Points to $180K Before Overheating

Bitcoin's current price trajectory has drawn significant attention from analysts and traders, with key on-chain metrics and market indicators suggesting a potential rise toward $180,000 before signaling overbought conditions. The Mayer Multiple, a long-term metric comparing Bitcoin's price to its 200-week moving average, currently stands at 1.16, well below the 2.4 threshold historically associated with market tops 99Bitcoins^[1]. This level suggests that Bitcoin, despite hitting all-time highs, remains in a "cold" phase, offering room for further appreciation.

Crypto quant analyst Frank A. Fetter highlighted that Bitcoin's Mayer Multiple being "ice cold" at current levels indicates a strong setup for continued bullish momentum CoinCentral^[2]. According to data from Checkonchain, the price would need to reach approximately $180,000 for the Mayer Multiple to hit the 2.4 overbought level, a scenario that would align with historical patterns observed during speculative peaks in 2017 and 2021 Bitscreener^[3]. This cycle, however, has shown a cooler trajectory, with the Mayer Multiple peaking at 1.84 in March 2024 when Bitcoin traded near $72,000 Phemex^[4]. Analysts attribute this to a more sustainable and less volatile bull run compared to prior cycles.

Technical indicators also point to a potential breakout. Trader Tony "The Bull" Severino noted that Bitcoin's weekly Bollinger Bands have tightened to record levels, a precursor to significant price movements. He warned of potential "head fakes" or false breakouts, citing Bitcoin's recent inability to hold above its upper Bollinger Band despite reaching an all-time high of $126,080 Cointelegraph^[5]. Severino emphasized that a valid breakout within 100 days could determine the direction of the bull market, with a failure to achieve this potentially leading to a prolonged consolidation phase.

While bullish signals abound, institutional caution persists. Hargreaves Lansdowne, the UK's largest retail investment platform, recently advised investors to avoid Bitcoin, characterizing it as a "highly volatile investment" with no intrinsic value TradingNews^[6]. The firm highlighted the risks of extreme price swings, referencing the 2022 "crypto winter" that erased $2 trillion in market value. However, it acknowledged that some clients may still seek speculative exposure through regulated products starting in early 2026.

On-chain data reinforces the bullish narrative. Exchange reserves have dwindled to 1.82 million BTC, the lowest since 2018, reflecting robust institutional accumulation and ETF inflows TradingNews^[7]. Additionally, Bitcoin's supply growth has slowed post-halving to below 0.8% annually, while demand from corporate treasuries and sovereign funds continues to rise. Analysts project that sustained institutional flows could push Bitcoin toward $150,000 in 2025, with some models suggesting a path to $180,000 if macroeconomic conditions and regulatory developments remain favorable Forbes^[8].

Short-term volatility remains a factor. October, historically a strong month for Bitcoin, could see dips to $114,000 before resuming an upward trend, according to several analysts Bitscreener^[9]. Meanwhile, a large short position on Hyperliquid, involving 3,600 BTC ($438 million), underscores the market's bearish bets, though these have not yet materialized into a sustained correction Cointelegraph^[10].

In summary, Bitcoin's current price environment, supported by a historically low Mayer Multiple and robust on-chain fundamentals, suggests a path toward $180,000 before signaling overbought conditions. While institutional caution and short-term volatility pose risks, the broader technical and fundamental outlook remains bullish, with key indicators and expert analyses converging on a continuation of the uptrend.