Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin's HODL wall faces FTX-style test as $1.1B liquidations mount

Bitcoin tests the $95k HODL wall after cascade knocks out $655M from bulls

The cryptocurrency market is bracing for a pivotal moment as Bitcoin (BTC) approaches the $95,000 level, a critical support zone dubbed the "HODL wall." Over the past 24 hours, the market endured $1.1 billion in liquidations, with long positions accounting for $968 million of the forced closures according to reports. This turmoil has reignited comparisons to the 2022 FTX collapse, as sentiment plummeted to levels not seen since that crisis. The largest single liquidation event-a $44.29 million BTC-USDT position on HTX- underscored the severity of the selloff.

Analysts are closely watching technical indicators for signs of a potential bottom. Bitcoin's RSI has plunged into "oversold" territory, a condition last observed during the FTX crisis. Meanwhile, historical patterns tied to the "death cross"-a bearish technical signal-suggest a possible rebound. Data from the past seven years shows that Bitcoin has historically bottomed within five days of a death cross, with subsequent rallies averaging at least 45%. Analysts like Sykodelic and James Van Straten predict the next death cross will form in the coming days, potentially marking a local bottom near $95,000 before a rally to $145,000.

The market's volatility has also been amplified by divergent flows in crypto ETFs. While Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a $524 million inflow on November 11, Ethereum ETFs recorded a $1.071 billion outflow according to market data. These trends highlight shifting investor sentiment, with institutional players recalibrating exposure amid macroeconomic uncertainty. However, ETF inflows have since resumed, with $523.98 million entering Bitcoin ETFs on November 12, signaling tentative confidence in the asset.

Institutional concerns remain pronounced. Markus Thielen of 10x Research warned that $939 million in weekly ETF outflows and signs of market fatigue could trigger further corrections. Bitcoin's correlation with traditional assets, such as gold, has deepened, with gold up 57% year-to-date compared to Bitcoin's 8% gain. This underperformance has prompted some investors to rebalance portfolios, exacerbating short-term selling pressure.

Despite the bearish backdrop, regulatory developments in the U.S. could provide a long-term tailwind. Bernstein analysts noted that the passage of the GENIUS Act and the impending CLARITY Act are positioning the U.S. as a global leader in crypto regulation. These frameworks aim to clarify oversight roles between the SEC and CFTC, fostering innovation in tokenized assets and onchain trading.

Bitcoin's price action remains in flux. After dropping to $98,377 on November 13-the third sub-$100,000 level this month-it has since rebounded to hover around $104,000 according to market data. Technical indicators show mixed signals: the RSI remains in bearish territory at 43, while the MACD momentum oscillator suggests potential for a short-term rally according to technical analysis. A break above the 200-day EMA at $107,940 could validate a bullish outlook toward $110,000 according to market forecasts, though sustained volume will be critical to confirm a trend reversal according to technical indicators.

As the market navigates this inflection point, traders are split between caution and optimism. Polymarket data shows a 66% probability of Bitcoin reaching $95,000 in November, while others bet on a sharper correction. For now, the $95,000 HODL wall looms large-a test of whether Bitcoin's bulls can withstand the current bearish wave or if the price will break lower.