Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin Hits $117K as Record $44.5B Open Interest and $154B ETF Surge Signal Extended Bull Cycle

Bitcoin’s price action and derivatives market dynamics are reinforcing the view that the cryptocurrency is deep in a major bull cycle. With Bitcoin hovering near $117,000, analysts are drawing parallels to historical patterns from 2013, 2017, and 2021, suggesting the asset remains on track for further gains. Open interest—a key indicator of speculative activity—has surged to a record $44.5 billion, reflecting heightened participation and signaling potential volatility as traders add leverage amid price consolidation [1].

The surge in open interest contrasts with a recent 6% pullback from July’s peak to $115,002, a correction consistent with historical norms. Data from CryptoQuant indicates that open interest typically rises during price declines, as short positions are added and derivatives activity intensifies. This dynamic aligns with past cycles, where Bitcoin’s price has often broken out of consolidation phases to establish new highs after similar buildup [2].

Market structure analysis highlights Bitcoin’s adherence to long-term cycles tied to halving events and institutional adoption. The cryptocurrency’s price currently hugs a strong ascending trendline, a technical pattern that historically precedes sharp upward moves. Analysts argue that the current cycle differs from previous ones due to the growing influence of institutional capital. The approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in early 2024 has accelerated this shift, with over $154 billion in assets under management as of July 2025. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) alone holds 700,000 BTC, underscoring the scale of institutional involvement [4].

Retail and institutional behavior, however, diverge sharply. While institutions continue to accumulate positions, retail traders have acted as net sellers in recent weeks, reflecting caution amid overbought conditions. The RSI for Bitcoin reached 75 in early July, entering overbought territory—a level analysts like PlanB associate with extended bullish momentum seen in past cycles [3]. This divergence highlights a broader market divide: institutions adopt long-term strategies, while retail participants often respond to short-term volatility.

Regulatory developments, such as the GENIUS Act, have further fueled institutional interest, with major Wall Street firms like JPMorgan and Charles Schwab expanding crypto product offerings. These shifts are reshaping Bitcoin’s volatility profile compared to earlier cycles. Matt Hougan of Bitwise Asset Management argues that regulatory clarity and macroeconomic alignment have reduced the asset’s reliance on halving-driven retail speculation, creating a more stable foundation for growth [4].

Despite these positives, risks persist. A breakdown of Bitcoin’s current trendline could trigger deeper pullbacks, particularly if open interest continues to rise alongside falling prices—a signal often linked to short-term bearish pressure. Analysts caution that the market’s trajectory will depend on sustained institutional participation, regulatory progress, and broader macroeconomic stability.

Sources:

[1] [Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin Surges to $117K as Retail Traders Sell, Institutions Accumulate](https://www.ainvest.com/news/bitcoin-news-today-bitcoin-surges-117k-retail-traders-sell-institutions-accumulate-bull-cycle-2507/)

[2] [Bitcoin Weekly Forecast: BTC Extends Correction Amid...](https://www.mitrade.com/insights/news/live-news/article-5-987326-20250725)

[3] [Bitcoin RSI Hits 75 as PlanB Signals Months-Long Overbought Bull Run](https://www.ainvest.com/news/bitcoin-news-today-bitcoin-rsi-hits-75-planb-signals-months-long-overbought-bull-run-2507/)

[4] [Crypto’s 4-Year Cycle Is Over: $154B ETF Surge Signals New Market Era](https://www.fxleaders.com/news/2025/07/26/cryptos-4-year-cycle-is-over-154b-etf-surge-signals-new-market-era/)