Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin Hits $114,000 After 7% Pullback Amid Bullish On-Chain Signals

Bitcoin’s price reached an all-time high of $123,400 in July 2025 before experiencing a 7% pullback, settling around $114,000 in early August. The correction is seen as part of a broader price discovery process ahead of the traditionally strong fourth quarter [1]. Analysts, including Tom Lee of Fundstrat, maintain bullish forecasts, with Lee reiterating his $250,000 price target for year-end and even suggesting a long-term target of $1 million for Bitcoin [2]. His confidence is rooted in the idea that market skepticism itself can create opportunities for positive surprises [2].

On-chain data supports a constructive narrative for Bitcoin despite the recent volatility. Exchange outflows have continued since mid-April, amounting to $21.49 million in outflows on August 5 alone, indicating accumulation by long-term holders [1]. The Network Value to Transactions (NVT) ratio has declined by 32%, now at 29.2, suggesting the current valuation is increasingly backed by actual transactional activity rather than speculative fervor [1]. Additionally, miner OTC balances have dropped to 147,500 BTC—their lowest level in years—signaling reluctance to sell and reduced market pressure [1].

Market sentiment has shifted from “Greed” to “Neutral” on the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, reflecting cautious optimism among investors. While some analysts like Markus Thielen from 10x Research and firms such as Bernstein and Standard Chartered have set more conservative targets—$160,000 and $200,000 respectively—Tom Lee and others remain more aggressive [1]. The discrepancy highlights a broader range of expectations as the market navigates macroeconomic uncertainty and bearish technical signals [2].

Binance’s elevated stablecoin reserves suggest substantial capital remains on the sidelines, potentially providing liquidity if the market turns bullish again. This, combined with a positive on-chain environment and seasonal tendencies for Q4 outperformance, creates favorable conditions for a sustained price rally [2]. Analysts note that if Bitcoin follows the 2020 pattern, a peak could occur in October, aligning with the 550-day post-halving cycle [1].

With only five months left in 2025, the market is closely watching for key catalysts including regulatory developments, ETF inflows, and Fed policy changes. On-chain strength, seasonal trends, and institutional interest all point to the possibility of a renewed upward trajectory, especially if Q4 seasonality holds true [1]. The next few months will be critical in determining whether Bitcoin can break through key resistance levels and achieve its ambitious price targets.

Sources:

[1] AMBCrypto. Can Bitcoin still reach $200K in Q4? - 4 signs say yes IF…

https://ambcrypto.com/can-bitcoin-still-reach-200k-in-q4-4-signs-say-yes-if

[2] cryptoadventure.com. $200K Bitcoin (BTC) This Year? On-Chain Metrics Make a Strong Case

https://cryptoadventure.com/200k-bitcoin-btc-this-year-on-chain-metrics-make-a-strong-case/