Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin's Fragile Balance: Bullish Momentum Faces Bearish Liquidity Risks

Bitcoin's recent price action has drawn intense scrutiny from traders and analysts as the cryptocurrency navigates a critical juncture amid shifting macroeconomic dynamics and volatile derivatives markets. The digital asset has rebounded above $105,000, stabilizing after a late-October selloff, with key technical levels and liquidity clusters shaping near-term outlooks as reported by Investing.com. However, the specter of significant liquidation risks looms should prices falter, underscoring the fragile balance between bullish momentum and bearish pressures.

The U.S. government's resolution of a prolonged shutdown has injected optimism into risk assets, with Bitcoin benefiting from a broader risk-on environment. Institutional activity has picked up, with spot trading volumes rising 12% weekly and derivatives funding rates easing, signaling reduced speculative leverage. Meanwhile, Bitcoin's hash rate and mining revenue remain near July highs, reinforcing network resilience amid earlier consolidation phases as indicated by Investing.com.

Despite this, the market remains perilously exposed to sharp corrections. According to Coinglass data, if Bitcoin dips below $100,201, cumulative long liquidations on major centralized exchanges could hit $1.868 billion, while a break above $109,861 might trigger $781 million in short liquidations. Recent 24-hour liquidations alone totaled $341.85 million, with short positions accounting for $106.75 million in losses as the price rebounded to $105,922. These figures highlight the precarious positioning of traders, many of whom anticipated a continuation of the prior downtrend.

Technical indicators suggest a potential for further gains if Bitcoin can overcome key resistance. A "double bottom" pattern observed over the weekend has pushed the price above its 50-week moving average, targeting $110,000–$112,000 as the next hurdle. However, a CME price gap between $103,100 and $104,000 poses a short-term risk of retracement, with analysts cautioning that liquidity thinning could force a retest of the $101,000–$102,500 range. Additionally, liquidity clusters above $112,000-where ask orders are accumulating-could drive prices toward $117,000 if the $115,000 level is breached.

Market sentiment remains divided. While Bitcoin's 30-day correlation with the NASDAQ 100 has weakened to 0.64 from 0.73, signaling a gradual decoupling from equities, its rally has outperformed traditional assets amid easing fiscal concerns and sticky inflation expectations. The broader crypto market cap has surged 3.91% to $3.56 trillion, buoyed by the government shutdown resolution and renewed ETF inflows. Yet, stablecoin supply ratios-a proxy for market stress-have plummeted to 13.1, the lowest since 2025's start, hinting at lingering volatility.

Analysts warn that Bitcoin's path higher remains fraught with challenges. A breakdown below $100,000 could reignite panic selling, particularly as short-term holders remain under stress. For now, the market appears to be teetering between cautious optimism and entrenched bearish positioning, with every price movement testing the resolve of traders on both sides of the ledger.