Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin Faces 12%-14% August Drop as Analyst Cites Seasonal Trends, Liquidity Shifts

Bitcoin faces a potential bearish trend in August as crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen predicts a 12%-14% decline in the asset’s price during the month, driven by seasonal patterns and liquidity shifts. Cowen, referencing historical data from the past three years, notes that Bitcoin has traditionally seen such drops in August, which could pressure both the leading cryptocurrency and altcoins. He attributes this to a combination of market dynamics and his custom indicator, “Total3 minus USDT divided by Bitcoin,” which suggests altcoins remain elevated relative to Bitcoin but could face further downside if Bitcoin dominance rises.

Cowen forecasts that Bitcoin’s market dominance—currently around 60%—could climb to 66% by late October as altcoins underperform amid heightened volatility [1]. This aligns with recent market activity, including Bitcoin’s dip below $115,000 on July 24, which triggered concerns over short-term bearish momentum [4]. Technical indicators such as bearish RSI divergence and a critical support level at $110,530 are now key focus areas for investors assessing Bitcoin’s near-term trajectory.

Ethereum, while showing relative resilience compared to smaller-cap altcoins, remains under scrutiny. Cowen highlights that Ethereum has likely bottomed relative to Bitcoin, but most altcoins are down over 42% against ETH since April [1]. Glassnode data indicates Ethereum’s support lies between $2,000 and $3,000, with key resistance at $4,500. Analysts note Ethereum’s ability to hold the $3,476 liquidity level is pivotal for a short-term rebound. However, Markus Thielen of 10x Research warns of overbought conditions and rising borrowing costs on platforms like Aave, which could lead to leveraged liquidations and further pullbacks [5].

Altcoins like Solana (SOL) and XRP are particularly vulnerable. Solana’s price fell below $180 in mid-July as bearish momentum intensified, extending losses during a critical period for market sentiment [2]. XRP’s chart has formed a double-top structure, with August historically marking a bearish phase for the asset [8]. Ethereum ETF inflows continue to favor Ethereum over Bitcoin, yet a full-scale “altcoin season” remains elusive [5].

The broader crypto market reflects mixed signals. While Bitcoin ETFs recorded a net inflow of $227 million on July 24 after three days of outflows, smaller tokens like Pump.fun and dogwifhat experienced sharp declines, with some dropping over 20% in a single day [5]. Analysts caution that Bitcoin’s correction could amplify risks for smaller cryptos, especially as macroeconomic factors and liquidity trends influence investor sentiment [7].

For investors, the focus remains on Bitcoin stabilizing above $115,000. A break below $110,530 could extend losses, while a rebound above $123,218 may reignite bullish momentum [4]. Ethereum’s mid- to long-term outlook remains positive, with a target price of $10,000 cited by Dennis Liu, though short-term volatility is expected [5]. Solana and XRP face pressure to reclaim critical price levels before year-end.

The market’s attention is also shifting to macroeconomic developments, including U.S. Federal Reserve policies and the potential launch of GPT-5 by OpenAI, which could influence risk appetite. For now, the bearish narrative for Bitcoin and altcoins in August underscores the need for cautious positioning as technical and liquidity-driven dynamics unfold.

Source:

[1] [Bitcoin Could See Bearish August, Analyst Says] (https://www.benzinga.com/crypto/cryptocurrency/25/07/46642446/bitcoin-could-see-bearish-august-analyst-says-what-does-it-mean-for-ethereum-xrp-solana)

[2] [Why is SOL falling?] (https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/solana-price-forecast-sol-dips-below-180-as-bearish-momentum-builds-across-key-metrics-202507250603)

[4] [Crypto price today: Bitcoin slips below $116000 amid liquidations] (https://m.economictimes.com/markets/cryptocurrency/crypto-news-today-bitcoin-slips-below-116000-amid-liquidations-solana-xrp-fall-up-to-5/articleshow/122902943.cms)

[5] [HashKey Trading Time: Ethereum Holds Steadily at Key Levels] (https://www.panewslab.com/en/articles/5opk7mkb)

[7] [Live Crypto Price Prediction: XRP, Solana and Cardano in 2025] (https://coindoo.com/live-crypto-price-prediction-xrp-solana-and-cardano-in-august-2025/)

[8] [XRP Price Forms Double Top] (https://bitcoinist.com/xrp-price-forms-double-top/)