Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin's euphoric phase cools—$112K tests market resolve

Bitcoin’s recent price action has seen it consolidate within a range of $104,000 to $116,000, with key on-chain metrics and market indicators highlighting potential turning points in the near term. On-chain data from Glassnode indicates that the price has entered a consolidation phase following a sharp correction from its all-time high of $124,500 to a seven-week low of $107,400 in early September 2025 [1]. This decline has pushed Bitcoin out of widespread net profit, with the supply in profit now concentrated between the 0.85 and 0.95 quantile cost basis levels, or the $104,100–$114,300 range [1]. Historically, this zone has acted as a consolidation corridor following euphoric peaks, often leading to a choppy sideways market [1].

The UTXO Realized Price Distribution chart shows that investors accumulated during the pullback, filling the $108,000–$116,000 “air gap” through consistent dip-buying behavior [1]. However, breaking below the $104,100 threshold could signal a replay of post-all-time high (ATH) exhaustion phases observed earlier in the cycle. Conversely, a sustained recovery above $114,300 would suggest renewed demand control and potential for a new upward trend [1]. Short-term holder profitability has also dropped significantly, from above 90% to 42%, during the decline to $108,000 [1]. This sharp reversal typically triggers fear-driven selling from recent buyers, though seller exhaustion often follows.

Currently, over 60% of short-term holders have returned to profit, indicating a neutral market sentiment compared to recent extremes [1]. However, only a sustained move above $114,000–$116,000, where over 75% of short-term holder supply would achieve profitability, could restore the confidence needed to attract new demand and drive the next leg higher [1]. Futures market funding rates are currently at $366,000 per hour, positioned neutrally between the $300,000 baseline and overheated levels exceeding $1 million seen in March and December 2024 [1]. Further compression below this threshold could confirm broader demand deterioration across derivatives markets.

The weakening demand is also evident in the spot exchange-traded fund (ETF) flows, which have significantly cooled since April 2025. The average daily Bitcoin ETF inflow has dropped to 540 BTC, down from over 3,000 BTC per day earlier in the year. A similar pattern has been observed in Ethereum ETFs, with inflows dropping to 16,600 ETH from 56,000–85,000 ETH per day [1]. This contraction mirrors broader TradFi demand contraction, signaling a potential shift in institutional investor behavior.

Bitcoin’s recent price consolidation follows its third multi-month euphoric phase, characterized by overwhelming price momentum pushing the majority supply into profit [1]. Such periods require persistent capital inflows to offset continuous profit-taking, a dynamic that has historically proven unsustainable in the long term [1]. A break below $104,000 could trigger further downside, potentially bringing the price to the $93,000–$95,000 levels based on previous cycle patterns [1].

The current resistance level at $112,000 remains a critical price point, with the price stalling multiple times this week. Traders and analysts suggest that a move back above $112,000 and a sustained hold above this level could confirm the end of the correction and potentially set the stage for a renewed bullish trend [1]. However, failure to reestablish above this level could prolong the consolidation phase and delay the next major price movement.

Source:

[1] Bitcoin's 'euphoric phase' cools as $112K becomes key BTC price level (https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-euphoric-phase-cools-112k-key-btc-price-level)