Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin ETFs Bleed $3.5 Billion as Price Tumbles to Six-Month Low, Analysts Warn

Bitcoin is facing renewed selling pressure as investors yank billions from Bitcoin ETFs, with analysts warning of further weakness as the year draws to a close. U.S.-listed Bitcoin ETFs have recorded $3.5 billion in outflows in November alone, nearing the record $3.6 billion outflow seen in February 2025. BlackRock's IBIT fund, which accounts for about 60% of assets in the ETF category, has seen $2.2 billion in redemptions this month, putting it on track for its worst monthly performance since the asset class's launch nearly two years ago. Citigroup's research highlights a direct correlation between ETF outflows and Bitcoin's price, estimating a 3.4% drop for every $1 billion in net outflows. Analyst Alex Saunders at Citigroup has set a bearish year-end target of $82,000, assuming continued outflows, while Bloomberg's Rebecca Sin notes that market volatility and the unwinding of hedge fund strategies like "basis trading" could prolong the selloff.

The outflows have exacerbated Bitcoin's price decline, with the cryptocurrency hitting a six-month low of $80,553 in mid-November. This marks its worst monthly performance since the 2022 crypto market collapse, compounding broader macroeconomic pressures such as weak U.S. labor data, sticky inflation, and uncertainty around Federal Reserve rate cuts. Santiment's data underscores the urgency, showing $2.8 billion in net outflows since November 12, including a record $891.5 million single-day withdrawal on November 20. The firm attributes the panic to deteriorating institutional sentiment and tighter liquidity conditions, which have amplified downward momentum.

Gold's outperformance against Bitcoin has further highlighted market dynamics, with the BTC/XAU ratio - measuring how much gold is needed to buy one Bitcoin - dropping to 31.2 ounces from 40 at the start of 2025. This suggests gold's dominance as a safe-haven asset in a risk-off environment. Meanwhile, the Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index fell to a record low of 15 in mid-November, signaling extreme fear among short-term holders. On-chain metrics like the Short-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (STH-SOPR) and Market Value to Realized Value (STH-MVRV) also dipped below critical thresholds, indicating widespread losses among newer investors.

Despite the bearish momentum, some analysts argue the selloff could be a cyclical reset. Elliott Wave analysis suggests Bitcoin remains in a corrective phase, with a potential rally to $164,000–$216,000 still on the table if the 4th wave completes. Yorick Ashbourne of FinanceWire [notes the outflows reflect a "recalibration"] https://www.tradingview.com/news/financewire:f63690d49094b:0-yorick-ashbourne-assesses-institutional-sentiment-shift-as-bitcoin-tests-us-100k-support/, rather than a full-scale collapse, emphasizing that institutional interest in alternative protocols persists even as Bitcoin ETFs bleed. However, key support levels like $88,000–$92,000 will be critical in determining whether the market stabilizes or continues to deteriorate.

The path forward hinges on macroeconomic clarity and ETF inflow reversals. A dovish Fed pivot or renewed institutional confidence could trigger a rebound, while prolonged outflows may deepen the correction. For now, the crypto market remains in a fragile state, with Bitcoin's fate intertwined with the broader financial landscape.