Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin's Diverging Signals: Correction or Prolonged Downturn?

Bitcoin faces a pivotal juncture as conflicting signals between bullish optimism and bearish caution collide, with the cryptocurrency trading near $80,000 after a 30% correction from its October 2025 all-time high of $126,000. The recent market turmoil, triggered by geopolitical tensions and leveraged liquidations, has erased over $1 trillion in crypto market value, forcing traders and institutions to reassess their exposure to BTC. Meanwhile, Binance's delisting of GMT/BTC and ME/BTC pairs underscores the exchange's ongoing compliance measures amid regulatory scrutiny, a move that could further tighten liquidity for niche trading pairs.

Analysts remain divided on Bitcoin's short-term trajectory. Some argue the current dip reflects a consolidation phase in a broader bull market. Max Keiser, a prominent Bitcoin advocate, claims the market has transitioned into an accumulation phase, citing net inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs despite broader price weakness. Others warn of a deeper correction. Chartered Market Technician Tony Severino identified a "triple bearish divergence" on higher timeframes, a rare technical pattern historically associated with trend exhaustion and prolonged downturns. This divergence, combined with Bitcoin's recent close below its 50-week moving average—a bearish signal that previously marked the end of prior bull cycles—has intensified concerns about a 2026 bear market.

Long-term price forecasts remain polarized. Optimistic models project BTC reaching $150,000–$225,000 by year-end 2025, driven by institutional adoption, potential Federal Reserve rate cuts, and renewed ETF inflows. Harvard University's recent $443 million investment in spot Bitcoin ETFs and Japan's Metaplanet's $100 million BTC war chest highlight growing institutional interest. However, conservative estimates cap the price at $80,000–$100,000, reflecting fragile short-term sentiment and record ETF outflows.

Technical indicators add to the uncertainty. While a 3.6% rally on November 27 offered a temporary reprieve, Bitcoin's macro trend remains bearish, with key resistance levels around $93,000 and $111,000 yet to be convincingly breached. The TOTALES market cap index's struggle to surpass historical resistance and the S&P 500's mixed signals further complicate BTC's path.

Looking ahead, the interplay between macroeconomic factors and on-chain dynamics will be critical. A Federal Reserve policy shift or renewed ETF inflows could reignite bullish momentum, but a deeper correction toward $35,000–$40,000 cannot be ruled out if the triple bearish divergence resolves. For now, Bitcoin's trajectory hinges on whether the current dip is a cyclical correction or the beginning of a protracted bear market—a question with profound implications for investors navigating the crypto landscape.