Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin Demand Falters as ETFs Turn Net Sellers, Pressuring Price Outlook

Bitcoin's Cycle Turns as Cryptoquant Flags Demand Slowdown

Bitcoin's latest rally appears to be losing steam as on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant warns of a significant slowdown in demand. The firm's latest report highlights the end of a three-year demand-driven bull cycle, citing the exhaustion of key price-supporting factors such as U.S. spot ETFs, the U.S. presidential election outcome, and corporate Bitcoin treasury activity. With demand growth falling below its long-term trend, the market is now facing a bearish shift, raising concerns over Bitcoin's price trajectory in the months ahead.

Institutional players have also started to shift their positions, with U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs transitioning from net buyers to net sellers in the fourth quarter of 2025. This shift has already seen ETF holdings fall by approximately 24,000 BTC. . At the same time, on-chain data shows that addresses holding between 100 and 1,000 BTC—often linked to institutional and corporate treasuries—are growing at a rate below historical trends. These signs point to a weakening of the structural underpinnings that had previously driven Bitcoin higher.

Derivatives markets reinforce this bearish narrative. Perpetual futures funding rates have dropped to their lowest levels since late 2023, indicating a reduced appetite for leveraged long positions. Bitcoin has also crossed below its 365-day moving average, a key technical level that has historically separated bull and bear regimes. Analysts at CryptoQuant stress that Bitcoin's four-year price cycles are primarily driven by demand fluctuations, not by halving events or supply-side factors.

Risks to the Outlook

According to CryptoQuant, Bitcoin could face downside risk toward $70,000 in the next few months, with a deeper decline to $56,000 possible if the bearish trend continues. The firm estimates that a move toward $70,000 could occur within three to six months, while a slide to $56,000 would likely require sustained weakness into the second half of 2026. This forecast has already started to play out, with Bitcoin trading near $86,000 on December 17, 2025.

Short-term holders of Bitcoin are now in a loss-making position, with the asset trading below their average entry price of $104,000 for over a month. Long-term holders, meanwhile, have been actively reducing their holdings, with over 500,000 BTC sold since July 2025. These trends suggest a broader shift in positioning, as traders and investors either cut losses or lock in gains amid uncertainty.

What This Means for Investors

Bitcoin's bearish turn has implications for both retail and institutional investors. The current market environment is marked by high volatility and thin liquidity, as seen in December's $100 billion intraday market value swing. This volatility, driven by leveraged positions and fragile liquidity, underscores the fragility of the current price action. Investors are now being forced to adopt more cautious strategies, with many turning to ETFs, options, and structured products to manage risk.

For those holding Bitcoin as a long-term store of value, the current price correction may present an opportunity. Institutional investors, such as endowments and sovereign wealth funds, have continued to buy the dip, with corporate-level purchases outpacing individual investors in recent days. Analysts suggest that this trend could signal a bottoming process, with Bitcoin potentially returning close to $100,000 before the end of 2025.

The crypto market as a whole is also shifting, with market capitalization hovering near $2.96 trillion as of December 17. If Bitcoin continues to trade in a range between $80,000 and $95,000, it could set the stage for a more orderly consolidation rather than a free-fall. However, a decisive breakdown below $80,000 could open the door to much deeper declines, with $65,000 cited as a potential target in such a scenario.

As the bear market continues to play out, market participants will be closely watching for signs of demand recovery, particularly in the ETF space and corporate treasury activity. Until those catalysts return, Bitcoin is likely to remain in a consolidation phase, with its price direction heavily influenced by macroeconomic developments and institutional positioning.